If you had you pick a team that is a mirror image in our style of play, it would be Clemson. Now my question is, does this take away one of huge advantages? Given that Anderson has always said his style is made for tournament play, doesn’t it hurt us that this team sees the same thing everyday? I mean there is no element of surprise like there would be if we played anyone outside of the Big 12.

These two teams are very similar on paper.  Much like the Tigers, they are extremely balanced with eight guys averaging over 4 points per game and over 11 mpg. The don’t have anyone over 6′8″.  However, Clemson has the one thing Mike Anderson needs more than anything and that’s a big guy on the post who can score and who is athletic.  Trevor Booker was first team All ACC averaging 15.3 PPG and 8.3 Reb. He is one of two ACC players( Tim Duncan) to have 1500 points, 1000 rebounds, 200 blocks and 200 assists.  He shoots over 50% from the floor, but only 61% from the line.  He is going to be a load down on the blocks, especially with Bowers injury.  Their two Achilles heels are they turn it over a lot (15 per game) and are only shooting 65% from the line.  Their point guard Stitt has a 1.2/1  assist to turnover ratio which bodes well for the Tigers. 

Here are their starters stats and highlights from ESPN.

On the defensive side they average almost 10 steals per game and are only outrebounding their opponents by 1.4 on the year, and were actually outrebounded in conference games.  The Tigers only avg 35 per game so without Safford that is going to be a focal point.   This year, the Tigers are 14-0 when they outrebound their opponents so if we can stay with them on the glass, we have a real shot.

But, really this game comes down as to whether the Tigers can figure our how to shoot the basketball again.  This team is about as streaky as it gets in the way they shoot the ball.  Zaire Taylor may make everything in the last two minutes, but he can’t make anything in the other 38 as shown by his frigid 37%.  His wide open three against NU that hit nothing was mabe the worst wide opne jump shot I have ever seen. English continues to force bad shots, and Anderson continues to take him out when he does it.  He is now under 40% on th year.  If you took away Ramsey and Bowers, this team would barely be over 40% as a team. 

We are shooting a scorching 41% and 35% from three.  Given that Clemson’s FG defense is 41% and 29%, let’s hope this team figures it out quick.  Let’s face it, if we don’t shoot it better we have no chance.   It really seems that since Safford’s injury the outside guys really feel they need to pick up the slack and might be pressing. 

So which team shows up?  The one who was sitting at 9-3 and was looking at challenging for 2nd place int he conference, or the team which without Taylor’s shot at Ames would probably not be playing right now.  If this team shoots it well, we can play with anyone.  If we can avoid the long droughts that have seemed to plague us all year, and get Clemson to give it up, there is no reason the Tigers can’t win.  

Prediction:  I’ll homer it.  75-72 Tigers.

Thoughts?

Feb 13-19, 2010, page 34.

He’s gotten more face time than any 3rd string QB in NFL history. Must have a great publicist.

I really think to get to the next level as a program, we’ll need to either get that guy, or become just a phenomenally skilled team, which makes good decisions and plays hard. Not that I have to have a championship team to get excited about. After the Texas A&M loss, I was tempted to write an article about how fun this team was to watch, even in defeat. After Baylor, I was so moved to write this article that I even sat down and stared at my keyboard, trying to will words out of my fingers. This team just has an exciting brand of play that is fun, even when it doesn’t win, not entirely unlike our football team. Well, that was then.

After the last few games, I’ve had no such sentiments, particularly the Nebraska loss. Heading into the tournament, the obvious question is, can this team regroup and make a run in the tournament. I personally don’t care. The tournament is a roll of the dice. 1 or 2 wins is considered success for most teams. 3 is great for all but a handful. Should so few games really define a season? Especially given that it’s often more about matchups than talent, especially with our team. We can knock off a top 10 team as easily as a 9 seed if a few of their key players can’t handle the pace.

And anyway, I’ve never subscribed to the “momentum” theory of tournament success. A winning or losing streak rarely carries into the tournament UNLESS there are underlying changes that are causing that outcome. Unfortunately, in Missouri’s case, I fear that might be happening. I never thought we could miss Safford this much, but maybe we do. We don’t need a 7 footer, but we do need an inside scoring presence who can keep teams honest. Still, Mizzou’s system is well built for tournament success, and I don’t think a sweet 16 run is out of the question. The problem is the dreaded 8-9 seed, which we could well get.

But I digress, my point is that I don’t care as much about the tournament. I care that I have a fun team to watch – someone I can get excited about. I must admit that it took me a while to warm to Mike Anderson’s system. As last year proved, it can be the most exciting program in the country. But what’s funny is that when it’s ever so slightly worse, it looks 10 times worse. It looks like we don’t play defense at all and we have no offense other than pass around the key and chuck up a contested 3. What’s funny about this system is that when things aren’t going well, it’s not even like I get mad. I just get apathetic. And that’s almost worse, because the very core of being a fan is being fanatical.

Our season might have but one game remaining, the result of which we will have to stew in for an entire off season. Win or lose, what I really hope to get out of the last stretch is not even a win or a loss, but something to be excited about for the future. So go win Tigers. But more importantly, go make us proud.

1. The QBs, of course. The most intriguing position of all is always one to watch. This year Blaine Gabbert comes in as the de facto starter (as if he wasn’t last year). Jimmy Costello, last year’s #2, and Ashton Glaser, #3, have another year under their belts and will work hard to make the scout team hum. Then, the newcomers, a couple of four stars even. James Franklin and Tyler Gabbert. They’ve enrolled early and both think they can dent the two-deep. I’m skeptical, but you never know. I predict that at the end of spring Blaine and Costello are 1-2 again.

2. Voodoo Tatum. His back is healed and he will be going at full strength this spring. If the four-star JUCO recruit can make the two-deep at LB, where Mizzou is deep as can be, then we’ll know we really have something special. I recall the videos when he was recruited where he looked like a man among boys (of course, that happens a lot with these videos), so I’m really hoping he can dominate. Also, I’m an old man with a tweaky back so when any kid hurts his back I root extra hard for them. Plus, I’m calling him Voodoo, which is cool.

3. The WRs are a question mark with the loss of the two seniors who caught about 96.5% of the passes last year. I have a feeling Jerrell Jackson will be on an All-Big 12 team in 2010, but who else will step up? I like the looks of a healthy Kerwin Stricker (sporting #9 – no pressure dude) and a shifty L’D Washington. Many people love them some Wes Kemp and while I’m not sold on his skills, I’m willing to be wrong. The coaches love TJ Moe enough to abandon the redshirt, which seemed like a given, so there might be hope for him making a big jump. The fall will bring a whole hell of a lot of talent into the mix, so these kids are going to battle this spring so as not to be forgotten when Lucas, Sasser, and Hunt make the scene.

4. Dom Hamilton came on big time last season and I’m thinking he might have another leap in him. I’m not saying he’s going to go all Suh on us, but a force in the middle opposing coaches have to gameplan around is definitely possible. And a key to supporting the goodness that is Aldon Smith and the question mark that is the Tiger secondary.

5. I’m looking for someone to challenge Gettis and Rutland as the starting corners. Whether it’s Steeples or Edwards, I want the spring to end with at least one OR in a starting CB slot. I like Gettis and Rutland, but if the Tigers are going to take a step defensively the quality of coverage will have to improve.

I’m also, of course, looking forward to any inkling that the coaching philosophies have changed some for our second-year coordinators. Not sure what might be revealed this spring, but as I noted in the final post-mortem, change is necessary and I believe it’s coming.

To wrap this up, the ESPN blog fellow has his pre-spring power rankings up. Mizzou is 4th behind, in order, UT, OU, and NU. The North stacks up like this: NU, MU, KSU, KU, CU, ISU.

Still no respect for the Cyclones even after out-bowling the Tigers. Oh well.

Football!!!!

As far as the game today goes, its pretty much as previewed last game. If KU’s big guys play well or Sherron plays well, its going to be pretty tough to win. Tigers will have to feed off the emotion of Senior Day and the Zou, turn them over 20-25 times, and knock down shots. Its pretty much that simple. Thanks to Taylor’s heroics the other night, the pressure on the Tigers will be much less than it would have been had they lost in Ames. Staring at a three game losing stretch, and firmly on  the bubble would have made this game that much harder. While the  Tigers still have an outside chance at a first round bye in the conference tourney,  really the important thing is the big Dance. Having punched their ticket, they should be playing like they have nothing to lose today.  While a win won’t easy, we all know this game is a toss up today.  I have seen much worse MU teams pull out wins in Columbia. 

One thing that might be interesting is whether KU tries the triangle and two defense against English and Denmon if they are in the game at the same time.  They used it effectively in the games against KSU on Clemente and Pullen, and I could see Self giving it a try here.  I think there is a chance you might see it today a bit, especially if their bigs get in foul trouble like they did the other night.

While there is not too much to analyze game wise, I wanted to take a quick look at the three seniors who have truly been instrumental in the turn round of the program.   While I doubt any of these three would make it a list of the top 50 Tigers of all time (maybe Tiller), their contributions to the team concept and their effort as as good as anyone who has ever played for the Tigers.

JT Tiller:  Mike Anderson’s first recruit who followed him from UAB, Tiller really got his chance when Stephon Hannah got pissed about not getting some chicken wings.   Since that time he has become the the poster child for the Fastest 40 minutes in Basketball with his defensive intensity, and unselfishness.  Offensively, his skills are limited which I think he learned early this year, he still has an outside shot at scoring 1000 points in his career.  He can point to his Big 12 Co-defensive player of the years award in 2008-09 and his 23 points against Memphis in the round of 16 last year as career highlights.  While he was frustrating to watch on the offensive end of the floor at times, you never questioned whether the kid was going to give full effort every time out.  While the Tigers should be able to replace his production on the offensive end, his defense will be missed next year. 

Zaire Taylor:  He has been one of the more inconsistent Tigers over the past tow years, but no player in recent memory has hit more big time game winners that Taylor.  His end to end Edney like shot the other night was nothing short of spectacular, but the two he hit before that were even bigger since they tied the game each time.  His shots against KU and UT  I think propelled that team last year.  Solid defender who really bought into Anderson’s system and excelled.  He was frustrating at times when he seems to disappear in games like he did for most of the game in Ames, but all anyone is going to remember about him is the size of his “Onions”  at the end of games.  Not a bad legacy to have as a player. 

Keith Ramsey:  A guy every team needs.  I am sure all the coaches in the Big 12 would love to have this guy on their team.  Gives full effort every night doing the little things like rebounding, defense, and cleaning  up the glass on the offensive end.  His  block of Brackens and subsequent full court sprint and put back pretty much eptiomized his career at MU, and were two of the biggest plays of that game.  I have been a little hard on Ramsey given his limited offensive game and his tendency to provide absolutely no production, but guys like Ramsey are what make teams winners.

What have these three accomplished?  To date as a group they are 53-14 over the last two years, with a Big 12 Tournament Championship and a Elite Eight appearance.  Given where the program was just a few years ago, there is no question they have help turn it around.  Along with Carroll, Lyons, and Lawrence, these three helped to put Tiger Basketball back on the map.  Let’s hope they go out on a high note on Senior Day.

72-70. Tigers make Quantrill proud.  Taylor with one more game winner.

The NFL’s scoop on Danario:

Alexander is a huge WR with adequate straight-line speed and good ball skills, especially when going over the middle and catching the ball in traffic. He is competitive to the ball when covered and should have an immediate impact as a red zone receiver at the next level. He still needs work on his route running skills as he will telegraph his moves at times. He is more than just a willing blocker and has shown the kind of work ethic and competitiveness to make you think he could develop into a quality receiver at the next level.

That’s all good. His strengths are his size and competitiveness and weaknesses are the time it takes to get to top speed and his health. Of course.

Kurtis Gregory participated in the drills, or so I’m told, but you wouldn’t know it from the NFL Combine website. Apparently he wasn’t a “top performer” among OL in any category, which can’t bode well for his NFL future. But, we’ll see. It Colin Brown can get drafted, then maybe Gregory can. The overview:

Gregory is a high-character lineman who played tackle in college but projects as a better fit inside, at guard, for the next level. He has marginal initial quickness and is not a natural knee-bender so he struggles to leverage his blocks. He understands blocking angles and makes quick decisions but is simply not quick or agile enough to project as a make-it at the next level. He does not do a great job of bringing his feet with him and often ends up falling off blocks and going to the ground. If intangibles were a determining factor, he would be a starter, but he is not athletic enough to be more than a backup, at best.

He’s also a people-person who shows intiative. Yeah, intangibles don’t set a scout’s heart to racing. And, NFL, it’s true that Gregory played tackle in college, but not much. He was a guard.

Jared Perry got his chance and didn’t fare too poorly. From what I can tell, the NFL only reports the “top performers” so I don’t see his combine 40 time. He was slower than 4.49, the tenth best time among WRs, which is no surprise. The NFL seems to like his speed, though, and gives him a reasonable chance at getting a good look. At the combine, Perry broad jumped 10′1″, the 9th best, and did the three cone drill in 6.75 seconds, the 5th best. The overview:

While Perry has good height, he is lacking in bulk as well as playing strength. He plays the game fast and shows the acceleration to run by defenders on go routes down the seam and can adjust to catch the ball in stride. He is not real competitive to the ball when going over the middle and in traffic and will let the ball get into his body which allows defenders to knock the ball loose. He tends to run sloppy routes and will need to learn how to set defenders up to run underneath patterns. He can develop with added strength but looks more like a late-round type, if not a free agent.

Finally, there’s Sean Weatherspoon, possible first round draft pick. He raised his stock with his performance in Indianapolis. He was a top performer for LBs in four categories – the 40, bench press, vertical, and 60-yard shuttle. A great day for him. He also weighed in at 239 pounds, about 10 pounds less than his senior season playing weight. He’ll need to stay around there to keep up in the League.

He ran a 4.68 40, which I know is a disappointment to him. I don’t check twitter much, but am aware that he was tweeting his hopes to run in the 4.5s. He’ll get another crack at that at the Pro Day. Still, he ranked in the top ten of linebackers, so it’s not like it was awful.

His bench was awesome – he did 34 reps, second among linebackers to Donald Butler from U Dub. Four OL and two DL did more reps than Spoon. Suh did 32 reps. Spoon is strong like bull.

He can also jump through the roof registering a 40 inch vertical, second best among the LBs and tenth best at the combine.

What does the NFL website say about Spoon?

Weatherspoon is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is a tough hard-nosed linebacker that plays with a great motor. Weatherspoon is a solid tackler but not a thumper in this area. He runs well and shows good range in pursuit as well as in coverage. Weatherspoon leverages the ball well with good angles and proper body positioning. He uses his hands well to ward off blockers and maintain gap responsibility. Weatherspoon is an intelligent linebacker that possesses great intangibles that along with physical attributes which should make him a productive player as a rookie.

It looks more and more like Weatherspoon will be taken in the first round, at least if guys like McShay and the countless mock drafts are to be trusted. After that, I’d guess Danario still gets drafted but not until the fourth or fifth round. I would still be surprised if anyone else gets drafted, but I was surprised last year when six Tigers were taken. Hopefully more surprises are on the way.

Jack Perkins (good football name) is actually a linebacker/fullback. From what I’ve found, he’s 6′1″, 225, has a bad knee, and Scout.com calls him the top prospect in Alaska. Here he is scoring a touchdown:

Unfortunately, KSU got hot, we actually turned it over more than they did, and they shot 21 more FTs than we did. Game over. When you get a total of 10 points from guys over 6’ 7” inches, you really have a hard time winning. Give the guys credit, they never gave up and couple of breaks down the stretch and they might have actually won. Now, Wednesday becomes a really big game.

I never really felt like we played our type of game. Half court offense was bad again, the big guys (especially Bowers) were having trouble with the size and physical play, and just seemed we played reactionary instead of proactively if that makes sense. KSU took the game to us, even when they were struggling to score in the first half. You just felt if the KSU shots started falling, we really had no chance.

Good: Not much

Ramsey: I thought he played very well in a really physical game when Bowers was giving us nothing. 10 points and eight rebounds from him are very solid and he was clearly our only force inside.

English: 13 and 5, but 5 TOs. I actually thought English played well until he tried to do too much. One possession late in the game he dribbled for like 30 seconds and shot a fade away two. He was clearly feeling like he needed to do something at that time since no one else could make anything.

Defense: First half anyway. Holding a team to 19% is fantastic.

Bad:

Denmon: Three points, on 1-8 shooting. His only make was late in the game when he cut the lead to five, but before that he was not good. Coming off his last two games, I did not expect that performance. My one beef of him is his consistency. He will play very well for a couple games, and then becomes non existent in another. If the Tigers are going to do anything in March, he has to play more consistent.

FG%: Reared its ugly head again. 32% not going to get it done, especially on the road.

TOs: KSU with only 14, and we had 17. Points off turnovers KSU 21 MU 10. No chance to win a game against a good team with those numbers.

Ugly:

Bowers: 0-7 and no FTAs. While I think Bowers is the most talented player on the team, he sometimes struggles in a more physical game. He only had five points in Lawrence. You know Moore is not going to provide any offense, so Bowers has to really step up. Where have you gone Justin Safford, Tiger Nation turns its lonely eyes to you?! Can’t believe I wrote that. Yikes.

Bench: Nine points. The bench has been one of the Tiger’s real strengths this year, but not Saturday. However, when Miguel Paul is your leading scorer off the bench with six, I don’t like your chances. I think they only scored three points total in the 2nd half, and that was Denmon’s late three. Again with Bowers starting now and the wrong Denmon getting off the plane in Manhattan the bench was a non factor.

Wednesday night is a hug game. While I still think we are in or at least on the right side of the bubble, the weekend results sure didn’t do us any favors. There has always been this talk of whether the conference will get 6 or 7 teams in, and with OSU beating KU (on CBS no less) seven looks likely. I sure would not want to give the committee any reason to think just six. Chet is much better than I am at this, but look at these numbers:

Team              Record         Con           RPI        Games Left
aTM                19-8               9-5            13           OSU, @OU
Baylor            21-6              9-5            12           @TTU, UT
MU                  21-8              9-5             35          @ISU, KU
OSU                 20-8             8-6             25          @aTm, NU
Texas              22-7             8-6             24          OU, @BU

If we win on Wednesday night, and get to 10 wins, I think we are in the tournament. I don’t see how the committee can keep a 10 win team in one of the best conference out. However, if we should lose on Wednesday and then lose on Saturday, I think there has to be some concern.  Then, if we happen to lose in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, you are looking at a four game losing streak. Are we still in? Probably, but I don’t want to take a chance, especially with the upsets that always happen in other conference tourneys. I think Baylor and  A&M are locks.   While I know we beat both OSU and UT, OSU does have that win against KU, and you know we have no chance if the committe decides only six get in and it becomes MU v. UT for the final spot.  Tigers really need a win in Ames.

Last time I predicted a war, and 56 fouls and 73 Fts later, the Tigers pulled out a win in a game that could have gone either way. I would expect the same thing although the foul numbers and Fts might be reversed. Not saying that the Tigers got he home town officiating, but we did shoot 43 Fts which is by far our season high. Don’t expect that number again in Manhattan.

Really nothing has changed since my first preview    http://atomicteeth.fantake.com/2010/01/08/ksu-preview/  . On paper these two teams have been very simliar in Big 12 play(rank in parentheses).

PPG KSU 87.3(T2) MU 76.3(4)
DPG KUS 70.2(4) MU 69.4(3)
Scoring margin KSU 8.2(2) MU 6.9(3)
FG defense KSU 42.5(6) MU 42.1 (3)
3FG defense KSU 33.7(4) MU 33.6(3)

KSU has a big advantage in FG%, rebounding, and FTA while the Tigers are much better FT%, steals, and turnover margin.

The same analysis still applies to this game. If our bigs play well, and we turn them over we have a real shot. Last game, Sutton, Kelly, Colon and Samuel scored a combined 18 points. Safford, Ramsey, and Bowers scored 30. Tigers actually out rebounded KSU 35-30.   Of course the loss of Safford could have a major effect on the ability of our bigs to match up.  The debate as to what the loss of Safford means to the Tigers was hotly debated by the AT crew yesterday.  While he has shown flashes as an offensive player, he is limited defensively. More importantly for this game,  I think the loss of a big body hurts our depth, especially in a game like this one which will be very physical.  means more Bowers and Ramsey, but could mean foul trouble. Let’s hope Steven Moore actually steps up and plays well, and doesn’t foul out in five minutes. KSU turned it over 21 times, including nine for the guards. Even with all that, we only won by six and had to make plays at the end to do it. Saturday,we are going to have to play even better than that in order to win.

KSU has been playing very well since its loss to KU in overtime. They have won six straight, including four on the raod. I think a lot of that can be attributed to the improved shooting of Clemente. He’s averaging 20.8 over that span, and to me this team will go as far as that kid takes them. When he plays well, they can play with anyone. Pullen is coming off a 28 point game against TTU and is averaging 17.2 during the same stretch. Tigers have won 5 out of 6 and have gotten contributions from pretty much everyone, especially English and Denmon so the guard play should be fun to watch.

Prediction:  Does not set up well for the Tigers.  Satruday night in the Octagon of Doom, second seed on the line, revenge game, and the Tigers a little undermanned inside.  Going to take a big effort defensively, and  some hot shooting to win.  Don’t see it in Manhattan. KSU 72-65.

That is a 71% chance of getting a bye. Much higher than either one of us expected.  As we analyze the remaining games it is apparent that we should be huge Oklahoma fans.  In order to get a first round bye we really need Oklahoma to beat Texas A&M or Baylor at home.