I think I’ve made it abundantly clear that I have a disgusting man-crush on Ken Pomelroy and his basketball “computer rankings.” And, while my unrequited love is at least partly motivated by KenPom’s own Mike Anderson man-crush, I am also fascinated by his methodology and what it says about future Tiger matchups.

Pomelroy’s system identifies “four factors” (that are really eight factors as each applies both on offense and defense) that he thinks are critical to both offensive and defensive basketball.  Those four factors are:

*turnover rate (measured as a % of offensive and defensive possessions)

*offensive rebound rate

*effective field goal rate (field goal percentage with a bonus for three pointers)

*free throw attempt rates

The first two really measure how good you are at having more possessions, more attempts at scoring, than your opponent.  If you can get your opponent to turn over the ball and you can get offensive rebounds at an abundant rate, while taking care of the ball and preventing your opponent’s offensive rebounding, you are going to have more chances to score.  Which is good, if you like to win at basketball.

The second two factors look at how efficient you are at turning those chances into actual points.  Effective scoring takes into account both two and three point field goals.  Teams that shoot a high rate of threes and make a lot will have very high effective scoring percentages.  And the other way to score is to get to the free throw line.

When you add up these four factors, the Tigers are a really effective ball club both at creating more chances to score and achieving points from those chances.  As everybody knows, the Tigers are the best in the country at forcing turnovers on defense.  They are also surprisingly good at offensive rebounding (ranking 76th in the country) and not turning the ball over (84th in the country).  The coup’de grace is that the Tigers have been lights out shooting the ball and preventing their opponents from shooting the ball (23rd and 8th, respectively, in 3 point percentage offense/defense).  The only one of the four factors (really eight factors when you consider offense and defense) where the Tigers lag is getting to the free throw line on offense and preventing their opponents from doing the same.

When you add it up, the Tigers are particularly adept at creating more opportunities to score than do their opponents, and much better at their opponents at creating points from those opportunities, primarily due to their ability to make three pointers on offense and prevent three pointers on defense (although they are very good at 2 point field goals on both sides also).  They are able to hold their own rebounding…although the conference season might change that.

As if this treasure trove of data wasn’t enough, Pomelroy also looks at every game the Tigers have played (here) and scouts what the Tigers did well/poorly and then tries to determine which of the above factors is most important to the Tigers winning.  In the Tigers case, the most important factor is our effective shooting percentage on offense, and preventing our opponent’s from shooting well or obtaining offensive rebounds on defense.  In other words, if the Tigers shoot poorly, or their opponent shoots well or gets a ton of offensive rebounds, the Tigers are in trouble.  Not exactly rocket science.

What about Texas Tech?  First, Pomelroy’s system doesn’t think much of Tech, ranking them 92nd.  They haven’t really beat anyone decent (Washington is only 86th in Pomelroy’s system).  They are middle of the road on all of the four factors, except they are very good at getting to the free throw line.  Pomelroy’s system notes that the most important factor in determining whether Tech wins or loses is its ability to prevent and force turnovers.  Probably not a good sign for the Red Raiders.  His system predicts an 89 – 79 Tigers victory, assigning the good guys a whopping 81% chance of winning.