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Baylor Preview

Posted by Sheriff Blalock on November 6th, 2009 under Football

I can’t help but be completely bummed about the fact that Robert Griffin III will not be on the field tomorrow. Bummed enough that it is hard to write a preview.

Theoretically, Baylor should not be much competition. They’ve got a poor run defense, and next to no offense. This should be the game where the run game finally looks good. There’s been incremental improvements, but even last week the Tigers only averaged just over four yards per carry. If the Tigers don’t get 200 yards rushing, there’s a problem tomorrow.

Baylor has been pretty good at defending the pass (when people have found it necessary to do so, which hasn’t been all that much). Teams are averaging running the ball 42 times a game against Baylor this season, only eight teams have faced more runs per game.

This statistic, from Matter’s Behind the Stripes, gives pretty good insight about Baylor’s passing defense:

Gabbert can’t afford any reckless throws, especially near the red zone. Baylor is one of four Big 12 defenses that’s intercepted more passes (nine) than it’s given up TD passes (eight.) Here’s the bad news for Baylor: Its 12 sacks are tied for the fewest in the Big 12. In fact, only six BCS conference teams have fewer.

Not having seen Baylor play, I assume this means that they don’t blitz much, and tend to play coverage. Gabbert has struggled in those situations this year (see Bowling Green), so I think the run game will really have to carry the Tigers through.

Offensively, Baylor is awfully limited without Griffin. They’ve not had 100 yards rushing in a game in any of their last four games (and you thought Mizzou’s running game was inept!). They have a couple of playmaking receivers in Kendall Wright and David Gettis, but freshman quarterback Nick Florence has really struggled to find them. It should be a banner day for the Tiger D, I don’t think a shutout is out of the realm of possibility.

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6 Responses

  1. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 6th, 2009 at 10:37 am

    I am very confident in getting a win tomorrow. Gabbert seems pretty healthy, the defense has been playing well, and we’re at home. The weather is supposed to be great and only GA single seat tickets remain. Everything’s coming up Mizzou.

    I do think Art Briles is a good coach, though, and I haven’t forgotten all the trouble Baylor’s D gave us last year in Waco. Well, all the trouble they gave Chase Daniel. We gained 500 yards, but Chase threw three picks. I predict a 36-17 victory. We’ll go up 33-0, BU will mount a minor comeback only to be thwarted by our superior defense.

  2. Roberto Frankfurter said:

    November 6th, 2009 at 12:47 pm

    I’m looking forward to a great day, game and night in Columbia tomorrow. There’s no question that the Tigers win easily tomorrow … something like 38-6. The only question for tomorrow is whether Gene Claude will go to the game or spend the entire afternoon at the sky bar. Based on the forecast … I’d bet sky bar.

  3. 4 MNC in a row said:

    November 6th, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    I too believe that Mizzou wil beat the crap out of the Bears. I don’t know if beating the impaired Bears is much to look forward to but I think Mizzou ought to have less trouble than NU had in putting away Baylor. As I said before, just goes to show you the absolute importance of a mobile QB. With Griffin, the Bears probably would have beaten Mizzou, but without him, they have almost no chance.

    Look at what UO did to USC. Look at how its O was completely unstoppable even against a D stocked with 3 or 4 future 1st round picks. I repeat, if Mizzou ever wants to get over the final hump, it needs to overhaul its scheme and revolve its offense around a mobile QB. The current scheme it has will never get it there. In a short time, even a KSU with an O based on a mobile QB will pass Mizzou in the North. Heck, I suspect, even this year, KSU beats Mizzou.

  4. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 6th, 2009 at 6:16 pm

    You know what I want out of tomorrow’s game? Aside from a victory, of course. I want Jerrell Jackson or Wes Kemp to have at least four receptions.

  5. Roberto Frankfurter said:

    November 6th, 2009 at 9:26 pm

    Tigers haven’t won at home since Sept. 19.

  6. Sheriff Blalock said:

    November 7th, 2009 at 8:22 pm

    Let’s see what the most wrong part of my post was:

    Theoretically, Baylor should not be much competition. They’ve got a poor run defense, and next to no offense.

    That’s pretty bad right there, but maybe worse is the next sentence:

    This should be the game where the run game finally looks good.

    That didn’t happen.

    If the Tigers don’t get 200 yards rushing, there’s a problem tomorrow.

    Well, there were problems, I was right about that.

    It should be a banner day for the Tiger D, I don’t think a shutout is out of the realm of possibility.

    Worst prediction ever!!!!!

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