With 4 games to go (unless you are an ISU or KSU fan–they have 3 games left) the division is wide open.  All 6 teams still have a chance to win the North but only two teams–Kansas State and Nebraska–control their own destiny. 

While 4 games might not seem like that many, when you put it all together its 16,384 permutations–that’s a lot and damn hard to figure out what can happen. There are over 1200 possible permutations that will put Mizzou in Dallas in December. Rather than try to summarize them all I have updated our Predict-a-North model to allow you to play with the scenarios yourself.  

Two things you should know:

1. It is virtually (not completely) impossible for us to win the North of Nebraska doesn’t lose 2 games.   There are scenarios where Nebraska loses once (not to OU) and the Tigers win out and triumph in a 3, 4 or 5 team tie-breaker, but these are few and far between and require lots of help from other teams.
2. We must beat KSU.  There are a ton of scenarios where we win the North at 4-4 (all in tie-breakers) but none of them involve a loss to KSU.

As it relates to this weekend’s games:

• Oklahoma at Nebraska — We need Nebraska to lose any 2 of the next 4 games.  This is the most difficult game on their schedule.  If they win this one you can just about write the Tigers off (our chance of winning the North goes from 18% to 9%).  However if they lose this game and Mizzou beats Baylor things get much closer.
• Kansas at Kansas State – This one isn’t terribly important, but the math says we should be rooting for Kansas State to beat Kansas.  Either way the Tigers chance of winning the North isn’t materially impacted by this game so root with your heart.
• Texas A&M at Colorado – Like the Kansas game, this one isn’t terribly important, but a Colorado win does improve our chances slightly.  A Colorado win will help our chances in a variety of the tie-breakers more than it helps Colorado’s own chances of winning the North.  Go Buffs!
• Oklahoma State at Iowa State — Here is another insignificant game for the Tigers.  An Iowa State win will help us slightly so root for the North team.

Like our past “Predict-a-…” models, this one relies on betting lines to determine the probability a team will win a game.   Same ground rules as always:

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  • the model is pre-populated with preliminary predictions
  • only the yellow cells can be edited
  • please hit F9 on your keyboard to update the calculations
  • refresh your web browser if you made a mistake and would like to start over
  • if you would like to play with absolute wins and losses rather than probabilities  just set the line to -27 and the odds will change to 100%

Check back weekly as we plan to keep this updated.