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Posted by Phenomenal Smith on October 28th, 2009 under Football
Sorry this is late. If this tardiness has thrown off your gambling week I apologize. I should warn you though that the lines here are not from Vegas or Danny Sheridan or any other reputable source. The lines are delivered to me every week by a passenger pigeon, the last of its kind. The bird is 95 years old, bless her tasty soul. From where Martha the pigeon gets the lines I have no idea. This week Martha was late and I feared her extinct, but she showed up with nary an explanation as to the delay. Millie’s like that.
Another wacky week is in the books and another on the horizon. A must win game for the Tigers if ever there was one. Thus far this year they’ve played seven games and were favored in only three. The Tigers have won all three. This week they are again favored, which means there’s a 100% chance they win. Go Tigers!
The lines for which we yearn:
CU +4 mu
BU +12 nu
A&M -6.5 isu
TT -7.5 ku
OU -25 ksu
OSU +9 ut
ILL +8.5 mich
NEV -26.5 hawaii
wyo +16 UTAH
Bowling Green is Rupaul this week.
Seriously, how bad is Illinois?
Nevada is rolling and has caught up to the Tigers in terms of wins. Odd, huh? They were the Tigers fourth victim and, at that point, the Wolf Pack had zero wins. Nevada will roll – that line is too small.
As for the Big 12 lines, who the hell knows? I like Mizzou to beat CU by more than four, but nothing would really surprise me. I’m not terribly optimistic about the season, true, but I still think CU sucks. Also, I like OU to kill KSU and OSU to give UT problems.
Bet early and often.
parlin said:
October 29th, 2009 at 4:08 am
I think the indecision on the pigeon’s name is a bad omen.
The A&M play is the only one I’ve got confidence in–such is the Big 12 this year that the main question is which team will make the bigger sucking sound as it goes down the drain.
Phenomenal Smith said:
October 29th, 2009 at 6:28 am
I couldn’t remember if the last passenger pigeon’s name was Martha or Millie. I went back and forth and guess I didn’t really settle on either.
Gene Claude said:
October 29th, 2009 at 7:01 am
I like A&M also. ISU’s win last week was probably the least attributable to the winning team’s talent that I have ever seen. ISU is better this year, sure, but A&M has some playmakers on offense. I guess I like the MU line also, mostly based on CU’s offense scoring 6 points in Manhattan.
Ag_in_TX said:
October 29th, 2009 at 7:14 am
I really like the A&M play as well. Although, I no longer am allowed to wager on A&M. It’s a long story that shant be rehashed here…..
I personally like the Nebraska play as well. I think Korn smokes ‘da Bears.
I am not nearly as sanguine over the other plays.
3 MNC in a row said:
October 29th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
If ISU has some of their playmakers back, then ISU has a great chance at beating A&M. A&M is not very good. With Fuller back, I suppose their skill player situation has improved, but ISU is a more physical team than A&M. You could say that a stiff wind is more physical than that Aggie D-line. If the ISU QB and RB play in this game, I would think that ISU wins the game by simply pounding the ball time and time again. That is all you have to do against this A&M D, which is why the Tech loss is sort of astounding.
UT beats the spread against the overmatched OSU pokies. OSU might have some success running down hill against the Horns (which would once again suggest it being overrated), but Robinson is not consistent and, even if he were to have the game of his life, I doubt if the OSU WR’s could consistently separate themselves. On the D side, OSU is decent against the run, but has no speed and can’t rush or pressure the QB. The key to beating Texas is to consistently pressure Colt. OSU simply can’t do this. As a result, even if the Longhorn O is not spectacular, it will be efficient and effective. I look for the Horns to have little trouble either running or passing the ball. That inability to generate any pressure against Colt will open everything else up for the Horns.
CU beats MU. It depends I suppose on whether Hawkins is the QB or not, but assuming Hansen is the QB, I am guessing that the Buffs pour more misery upon the Tigernation. Don’t know much about CU, but I know they have Steward, an X factor which Mizzou does not have on its side. Steward is probably the best back in the B12 right now and I look for him to big day at home. Basically, I think he will be the difference in this game. Given this and Mizzou’s unsettled issues at QB, it is hard to pick Mizzou to win. Colorado also might have a fairly stout run D, which will force Mizzou to rely on the pass to win the game and likely will once again expose Mizzou’s inconsistency and futility in that area. Fortunately for you all, so far I have sucked donkey balls with my picks. I really do hope that I am wrong on this one. Go Tigers.
Gene Claude said:
October 29th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
It is difficult for me to figure Nebraska right now. One one hand, the loss to ISU appears to be a monumental fluke. On the other hand, TT utterly destroyed them. On one hand, the win against Mizzou was nice. On the other hand, all evidence since that game indicates the first three quarters were more indicative of the Huskers’ offensive talent than was the fourth quarter.
Baylor has a few players on defense. I tend to think that Nebraska will run and defend its way to a cover, but I’m not all that confidence.
And, a Baylor win would just make me giddy, so there’s that.
Ag_in_TX said:
October 29th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?
3 MNC in a row said:
October 29th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
“Baylor has a few players on defense. I tend to think that Nebraska will run and defend its way to a cover, but I’m not all that confidence.”
This is the more likely scenario, but with the inconsistency NU has shown on O so far, you are right, it is anything but confidence inspiring. NU may also have suffered a possible team impairing injury in that Monsoon game. Helu hasn’t been the same since his injury and that shoulder could be contributing to his fumble issues. If NU is unable to run the ball downhill successfully (that is their bread and butter play on O), then that ends up affecting the rest of offensive game plan, since success in that area sets up everything else they do. SInce that injury, Helu hasn’t been the same player and that alone could explain all of NU’s O inconsistency, aside from having a roster full of skill players blessed with a set of hands of stone.
Sorry, but I doubt if NU manages to lose this game. BU without Griffin simply can’t score. Again that goes to show you how important a mobile QB is. He makes every one around him that much better. Look at BU with him and then without him. It is like night and day. With Griffin, Baylor wins at least 7 to 8 games this year, without him, they will be lucky to beat the Ags and win even one conference game.
Triston27 said:
October 30th, 2009 at 7:43 am
Nevada will roll – that line is too small.
Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. I like this line as well.