Earlier I posted a little something on Muschamp’s proclaimed Stats that Matter. I will now apply those stats to the Tiger and Longhorn offenses because if they really matter to the defense they must matter to the offense. I have been faithful to King Will’s decree that the Stats that Matter are the stats that matter, but think they are a bit incomplete. Spurred by reader Doc Nice’s comments, I am including Yards Per Play and Red Zone TD% to the equation. Certainly these matter as well. Yards Per Play is a more complete stat than Muschamp’s fave and teams that win need to score sixes in the end zone and not merely kick field goals.

I’m aware that an offense is more than its coordinator, but Greg Davis sucks. Nothing upsets a Longhorn fan more than the mere existence of Davis. Heck, they’ve even got t-shirts.

I’ve never read anything good about Greg Davis. But, he can’t be all bad, considering how good UT’s offense has been at times over the years. VY in his prime (that lasted for, what, six games and netted him millions) made up for a lot of bad coordination, but still, UT has put up some points. While everyone in America knows Muschamp, almost nobody knows Greg Davis. I conducted a scientific poll tonight and the four people quizzed had no idea. When I GIS’d him, I wasn’t even sure if I found the right Greg Davis. Is this him?

Or is it this guy, who GIS called up before the guy up there?

I may never know, but I’m hoping for the second Greg Davis.

This year the heat’s been on Davis even moreso than usual, and for good reason. The UT offense hasn’t been good. If we presume that UT has top quartile talent, then the numbers are really unimpressive. Luckily for Davis, Yost’s offense has been even less impressive and may be regressing (partially due to a gimpy QB). Here’s a comparison of the two disappointing offenses using what I’ll call Stats That Matter Plus.

Stats that Matter	Greg Davis's Offense	David Yost's Offense
Yards Per Pass Attempt	6.9(9)	7.4(6)
Yards Per Play	5.6(9)	5.5(10)
Third Down Conversion Rate	43.62%(5)	37.36%(9)
Red Zone Conversion Rate	93.23%(2)	90%(5)
Red Zone Conversion (TD%)	60%(9)	45%(12)
Scoring Offense	42(1)	29.3(8)

Indeed. As I’ve harped, Mizzou’s TD% is miserable. But, get a load of the yards per play? Yikes. I’m sorry I included these two stats. UT’s offense has been awesome, though, right? Just look at those points! UT’s defense and special teams are responsible for approximately 41.5 points a game, which are included in that statistic. I’m just guessing at the number, but it’s something like that. Each team’s rate stats are bad, Mizzou is especially bad on third down and in the red zone. So, what’s the problem?

Mizzou’s offense isn’t that young, as people have claimed. Gabbert’s green, but two senior wideouts and an o-line that falls in the middle of Big 12 experience should make up for some of that. DWash is a veteran. There’s plenty of experience on the offense. UT’s offense has no excuse. Senior QB, most experienced o-line, and Jordan Shipley is really old.

Some of the difference for the Tigers has been what Suh did to Gabbert’s ankle and the Monsoon Bowl as the above numbers have plummeted in the last two weeks. Sure, the competition is getting better, but the decline has been 90 degree angle steep.

A lot has been made of Yost’s playcalling. I’ve been all over it since Gabbert changed from mobile to immobile and the playcalling has stayed the same. Is Yost is crapping all over Mizzou’s chances?

Well, he doesn’t seem to be helping.

The offense has clearly declined since last year, and certainly a lot of that has to do with the loss of Chases Maclin. I can dig that. But, the Tigers also lost Dave Christiansen, the bad boy of the coaching staff. The tool. The recluse. That jackass is now coaching in Laramie. Here’s the comparison of Yost’s and Christiansen’s offenses:

Stats that Matter	David Yost's '09 Offense	Dave Christiansen's '08 Offense
Yards Per Pass Attempt	7.4(6)	8.2(5)
Yards Per Play	5.5(10)	6.9(3)
Third Down Conversion Rate	37.36%(9)	53.37%(3)
Red Zone Conversion Rate	90%(5)	89.34%(4)
Red Zone Conversion (TD%)	45%(12)	71.21%(5)
Scoring Offense	29.3(8)	42.2(4)

As compared to the rest of the Big 12, Mizzou hasn’t improved in any of the six stats. That’s troubling. The 17% point drop in third down conversion rate and newly found inability to score TDs in the red zone are things Yost has to fix if the Tigers are going to get to 8 wins. I’m sure he realizes that. Tiger fans were spoiled with elite players at key positions last year and we’ve gotten used to a certain quality of offense. The Blue Angels and all that. Tiger O is not the Blue Angels anymore.

This talk of Missouri’s offense is depressing me. You know what would cheer me up? Let’s talk about how much Greg Davis sucks. Especially Greg Davis v. 2009. A table would help….

Stats that Matter	Greg Davis's '09 Offense	Greg Davis's '08 Offense
Yards Per Pass Attempt	6.9(9)	9.0(3)
Yards Per Play	5.6(9)	6.5(5)
Third Down Conversion Rate	43.62%(5)	54.91%(1)
Red Zone Conversion Rate	93.23%(2)	89.71%(2)
Red Zone Conversion (TD%)	60%(9)	76.47%(3)
Scoring Offense	42(1)	42.4(3)

Ah, that’s much better. Considering that these stats matter to Muschamp, what are the chances Davis will be around when Mack Brown leaves? 0.2%. That might be a little high. Muschamp’s congratulatory presser will likely begin with “Greg Davis is no longer the Longhorn offensive coordinator….BOOM!!!”

Davis has been around a long time coordinating offenses and Yost is a newbie. Davis is in decline while Yost has no where to go but up. Hopefully their career arcs will pass about midway through the first quarter giving Mizzou a fighting chance to pull off a miracle.