Last year it was like this: 

Scoring Offense – 6th in the nation.
Total Offense – 8th in the nation.
Passing Offense – 4th in the nation.

Looks good, right?  It was good, but it wasn’t as great as those numbers make it appear.  The offense was completely overmatched against great opponents like OU and Texas and then forgot to show against some not-so-great defenses like Okie State and Northwestern.  Seriously forgot to show – the much maligned defense nearly saved the OSU game for the Tigers and scraped together the win against the Wildcats.  How did that happen?

Most fans seem to blame the poor offensive showings on the defense.  Of course.  Once you find a scapegoat, you do not let up!  Maybe Eberflus peaked his head in on a Christiansen-led meeting.  Maybe the scout defense gave the offense improper looks.  Who knows?  But, the truth is the offense sucked at times last year. 

One viable reason for the suckitude was Chase Daniel.  Just watch the Alamo Bowl for an example of a once great QB playing like crap.  Chase Daniel may have been hurt.  He had to be hurt to play like that.  Regardless of his health, he showed a lot of poor decision making as the season progressed when there was any pressure on him.  This was a new thing for the poised gun-slinger from Dallas.  He was always so calm and cool – so comfortable in the offense tailor-made for his skills.  Then, something happened against Okie State that turned him into Bart Star.

 
Blaire:  I still love you even though you threw three interceptions and cost your team a chance to be ranked number 1 in the country.

Chase wasn’t totally to blame.  The offensive line – not a bad line at all – just didn’t have the talent to keep up with the best defensive lines.  While Mizzou’s skill players, especially JMac and Coffman, more than matched up well against any opposition, the line just wasn’t up to the elite level predicted for the team.  It’s been that way for a long time, too. 

From 2000 to 2008, 42 Big 12 offensive linemen were drafted by the NFL.  Only one, Tony Palmer, played at Mizzou.  And he was taken in the 7th round, got released by his original team, and played in a total of 8 games in his NFL career.  In 2009, Colin Brown was selected in the 5th round by the Chiefs, which is hopefully a sign of things to come.  Still, reports out of the Chiefs’ camp indicate that Brown is not likely to make the roster.  We’re just hoping for a practice squad job at this point. 

In order to play with the big boys from the South, your big boys have to be dominant.  Dan Hoch is one of those guys.  Elvis Fisher is probably one of those guys.  Kurtis Gregory is a decent guard and Tim Barnes is a good center.  Austin Wuebbels is a big boy with some game experience under his belt.  Future NFL guys?  Hoch is the only one I’d bet on at this stage.  Maybe I could be talked into Elvis, but the MU o-line track record is a lot to overcome.

Perhaps another reason for the offense checking out last year was DWash’s bad wheel.  Against Nebraska, e.g., he ran like a wild man.  After that he had some decent games, but against good opponents, he was a non-factor.  Perhaps this was simply due to the offense’s severe reliance on the pass.  But, I’d suggest that this over-reliance was due to the coach’s loss of confidence in DWash.  Jimmy Jackson was a decent north-south runner, but not someone who could carry the load. 

The 2008 offense was supposed to be as good as any in the country.  It did not live up to that level.  Not close.   The 2009 offense, with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, Saunders, and Brown, isn’t expected by the masses to do much.  I believe success, and a lot of it, is possible.   How? 

Success mostly lies on two players’ shoulders.  Two guys, that if they play as well as we believe (we hope?) they can, will help the offense finish in the top 10 in the nation again.  Let’s look at the entire offense.

The offensive line.  This unit will be good again.  If Hoch is 100%, it should be better than the line in 2008.  Whether it can withstand the likes of Sergio Kindle or Auston English is another question entirely.  But, luckily, Mizzou plays in the North and won’t be challenged by elite defensive lines game in and game out.  This offensive line has 54 starts between them, so while there are two new starters and a lot of youth, the experience is significant.  The incoming freshmen, Meiners and Britt, have impressed in camp and may even see the field this year.  

From left to right we’re looking at:  Fisher, Wuebbels, Barnes, Gregory, and Hoch – averaging a robust 308 pounds.  That’s big, but I’ve learned that not one of them needs a Bro or Mansierre.

Go to the 41 second mark.

In short, I like this o-line better than last year’s.  I may like the line in ’10 better than ’09 – I believe we’re headed in the right direction.

Running back.  A healthy Derrick Washington is perfect for our offense.  A bum-kneed Washington who can’t cut is not good for our offense.  Let’s just say for argument’s sake that he’s healthy – he can put up numbers that will make last year’s 1000+ yards rushing and 200+ yards receiving look ordinary.  With Gabbert’s sophmoreness, Mizzou will run the ball more often and look for the quick dump-offs more often and DWash has the chance to be The Man. 

Let’s say he’s not 100%.  What then?  Pinkel believes that he has the best RB 1-2 punch he’s ever had  in DWash and De’Vion Moore.  It’s not like MU has been RBU under Pinkel, but the duo of Abron/Nash was pretty talented.  In addition to Moore, the Tigers have Kendial Lawrence, a freshman running back who seems perfect for the spread offense.  He’s guaranteed playing time this year and with DWash’s sketchy health record, the depth is important.  Gilbert Moye is also in the mix for some carries, but if we’re counting on him at key points this season…. well, there will be no key points this season if that happens.

I give the 2009 RB position an edge over what we ran out there in 2008.  Sorry Jimmy Jack – AT still loves you.

Wide Receivers/Tight End.  Maclin and Coffman are in the NFL.  Oh, the glamour!  The fame!  Philly fans are calling Maclin a bust because he’s fumbled twice and Coffman is known as Crash Test Dummy because he’s getting smacked around in practice.  Coffman’s also been shut out reception-wise the last two Bengal preseason games.  What a difference a year makes. 

Last year Coffman finished 5th in the nation in receptions per game.  Maclin was 11th.  Throw in a 54th place finish for Saunders and you’ve lost guys responsible for 20 receptions a game!  That’s a lot.  Can these guys be replaced?  Sure.  I mean, at the very least there will be new names in the depth chart. 

Will the guys making those 20 receptions be as good.  No.  Jared Perry, Wes Kemp, and Andrew Jones will be reliable targets for the QB.  Perry seems to have hit his ceiling and it’s not all that high.

He’s a useful part on a championship team, which is just fine.  Jones looked okay last year and is having a good camp this year, but he’s no Coffman.  He has good hands and can be tough to bring down, but he can’t play in the air like Coffman.  Kemp may end up being a Justin Gage-type receiver – big, strong, tough.  Not all that fast, but fast enough.  Throw in Egnew at TE, Jerrell Jackson, Rolandis Woodland, L’Damian Washington and TJ Moe at WR, and hopefully there’s enough talent there to keep us in clover this year.   The talent is raw, though.  It’ll need some time.  Someone will have to break through as the key cog among ball catchers.

That brings me to the second most important player on this offense.  Danario Alexander.  He’s the playmaker – the Maclin and Coffman rolled into one.   I recently watched the 2007 Mizzou/KU game (still on my DVR) and my spirits for 2009 were lifted a great deal by watching DA play.  If he’s healthy… that again.  Still, if he’s 100%, watch the fuck out.  He’ll compete with the Dezes for all-Big 12 honors.  He will become Gabbert’s number one target and could put up monster numbers.  Of course, he hasn’t been healthy in years.  His total recovery will go a long way to putting the Mizzou offense back on the lips of the national media as the (black and) gold standard for college football.  He runs like a gazelle, leaps like Superman, and catches like Venus de Milo…. 

Boink!

Oh yeah, he needs to improve on his actual catching.  That’s sort of important for this position.  I’d guess DA will have 60+ receptions for more than 1000 yards.  Perry will make 40+ catches and Kemp and Jones will combine for at least 80 catches between them.  The RBs and backups will bring in 100+ more. 

WR/TE drops off a bit this year if only because Mizzou lost the best WR and best TE in the school’s history.  There is talent and, hopefully, depth to replace it, but in order to keep Mizzou’s offense where it’s been, DA will have to live up to the hype.

Quarterback.  Blaine Dalton is destined for a Paul Crewe-type career.

Blaine Dalton exchanges Tiger stripes for horizontal.

Jimmy Costello will be #2 and Ashton Glaser will be #3.  Not a whole lot of depth there backing up the single most important offensive player for the ’09 Tigers.

Blaine Gabbert.

Yo Gabbert Gabbert!!!

As Gabbert goes, so goes the offense.  It’s that simple.  If he fails or gets injured, Mizzou is left with a former walk-on, a freshman from Arkansas who calls himself Hollywood, and something called Owen Lenander.  Gabbert’s QB1.  Can Gabbert carry the load?

I think that’s a probably.  Maybe.  Like everyone else my belief in Gabbert has grown with his fine spring and fall camps.  My skepticism, fairly substantial before, is somewhat allayed.  I still have some reservations, though.  For one, not everyone believes Gabbert is ideal to run Mizzou’s offense.  I met with AT’s QB Consultant and he shared these thoughts on Gabbert’s fit, or lack of it:

Gabbert’s strengths are somewhat wasted at Mizzou.  Arm strength?  That’s great, but Mizzou’s spread offense doesn’t require a strong-armed QB.  We need a QB who reads defenses, reacts quickly, has a quick release, and is accurate.  Those aren’t the things that garnered Gabbert five stars.   Further, while he’s got good straight-line speed, a shifty quick QB is more valuable in this scheme.  He’s wildly talented, but no slam dunk for success in this offense.

Another huge question mark regarding our new savior is whether he can stay on the field.  Mizzou has been blessed with two ultra-tough QBs – Brad Smith and Chase Daniel.  Brad Smith started every game in his four year career, only getting knocked out once for any significant amount of time – the second half of the ’06 Iowa State game.  Chase Daniel may have missed a snap or two in his three years as a starter, but the only time he sat was when the game was essentially over.  We’ve been lucky.

Now comes Gabbert.  He comes with injury baggage.  In high school, he missed most of his senior year with a foot injury and a dislocated shoulder.  Shoulders that dislocate are shoulders that dislocate, if you know what I mean.  The potential for injury is there.  In fact, in 2008′s fall camp Gabbert injured his shoulder and missed a week of practice.  He also got dinged up this past spring and missed some reps.  That kind of stuff rarely happened with Smith and Daniel. 

It harkens back to another tall, blond, rifle-armed, speedy-legged Mizzou QB, Kirk Farmer.  Farmer, the osteoperosis poster boy made out of balsa wood, pipe cleaners, and chewing gum, spent more time in the training room than on the field.  Gabbert’s injury history has me concerned that he is made of similar fragile materials.  I’m not knocking him – people get hurt – but I don’t expect the same durability from Gabbert that we saw from the last two starters.  I’d love to be proven wrong.

Finally, and maybe this isn’t fair, but Gabbert has never won on the field.  He’s won at camps, he’s won in the weight room, and he wins with a tape measurer.  Those are good things, but not as important as winning on the field.  Maybe Parkway West was really that bad, but Gabbert didn’t do much to bring them to respectability.  Chase Daniel, as we know, almost never lost before coming to Mizzou.

In addition to not winning, it’s not like Gabbert was a highly decorated high school athlete.  Brad Smith, for example, was named all-state twice as QB.  In Ohio, that’s a huge deal.  Again, production on the field.  Gabbert’s numbers at Parkway West, especially when compared to other top-flight high school QBs, were pedestrian.  Gabbert is a great camp QB.  If they had an Elite 1 camp, he would have been invited.  Is he anything more than that?  We don’t know.  He might be a great field general, but the only supporting evidence has come from Mizzou practices as described by coaches and media.  I’d feel better going into the Illinois game with more support.

I feel good about Mizzou’s offense.  It’s going to be different than the last couple years and may not score the points or gain the yards, but it should keep the ball a little longer affording the defense more breaks.  I’m guessing it averages 30+ points a game if DA and Blaine stay on the field.  If not…. well, I don’t want to talk about that.

Thoughts?