Yes, this is a Missouri Tiger site.  Yes, Albert Pujols does not go to Mizzou, nor has ever gone to Mizzou.  Still, I was thinking about La Machina (El Machino?) the other day and got to wondering about his Triple Crown chances.  He’s currently leading the NL in homers and RBIs and is ninth in batting average.  It’s early, but not THAT early that this discussion isn’t worthy of a blog post.  We’re 46% of the way through the season, after all.  

Triple crowns are rare.  The last major leaguer to accomplish the feat was Yaz in 1967.  The last NL player was Joe “Ducky” Medwick in 1937.  The chances of it happening in 2009 are slim, but if someone’s going to do it, it’ll be Albert Pujols.

First, the home runs.  Everyone loves a good home run and Albert’s had plenty this year, including a shot off the Big Mac sign and a called shot off the Royals Hall of Fame.  Here are the current top ten:

To get an idea for whom we think can keep up this torrid pace, here are their current numbers alongside the “on pace” and career highs.

Pujols has a pretty healthy head start on the usual suspects – Howard and Fielder.  That doesn’t mean he can’t be caught, but smart money goes on Pujols to outhomer the rest even though he’s currently on pace for 9 more blasts than his career high. 

Now for the team-dependent RBI.  The top of the Cards’ order don’t spend a ton of time on base, which may end up hurting the slugger.  The leadoff position’s OBP is .338, good enough for 7th in the leauge and the second hitter gets on base at a .321 clip, good for 13th.  The Phillies second hitter is OBPing at .239.  Ouch.  J Roll won’t be winning any awards this year….

Fielder is right there with Sir Albert.  He’s also driving them in without a great leadoff man (.324) or second place hitter (.347 – good for 8th in the league).  Prince and Albert’s RBI totals rest heavily with those two spots in the lineup.  If either teams’ get going, the other hitter might get left behind.

How have these guys fared historically?

Pujols certainly has as good a shot as anyone on the list to lead the league in RBIs.  Of course, it is far from a sure thing that he will.

Finally, batting average:  the stat that makes the Triple Crown nearly obsolete.  At least for me.  I rarely know who’s leading the league in batting average.  I rarely know my favorite players’ batting averages especially now that my fantasy league doesn’t use it anymore.  Still, it is a statistic.  And, it is one of the three that makes up the triple crown.

Pujols is currently ninth in the league.

Some crazy names there, which probably goes a way towards showing just how volatile batting average is.  A whole lot of luck built in there.

Of the top ten, Albert has the highest career high and overall average.  I’d say this bodes well for his ability to stick around the top.

If OBP were used instead of average, Pujols would now be leading in all three categories.  The HR/RBI/OBP triple tiara, we’ll call it, was last won in the NL by Barry Bonds in 1993.  Before that Mike Schmidt in strike-shortened 1981 and Willie McCovey in 1969.  Yaz brought home the tiara as well as the crown in 1967.

So, what are Pujols’ chances?  Probably between 5 and 10% – that’s a total WAG.  Maybe Euclid can devise a Triple Crown Predictorator….

UPDATE:  Since I posted this, Albert has hit homers number 27 and 28.