Rightly or wrongly, people use the bowl season as a measuring stick for the conferences.  In a way it makes sense, what with all bowls featuring interconference battles.  In another, more logical way, it’s inappropriate because of the small sample size and the analysis coming down to random matchups in random locations.  Whatever.  It happens, and if you can’t beat them, join them.  And try to do it smarter.  Here goes.

Before the bowls, I analyzed the lines and discussed which conferences had the best matchups to give the appearance of supremecy.  There, I shared with you the conferences’ final records as predicted by Vegas.

As you can see, the Pac 10, much touted after its 5-0 bowl year, was favored in four of the five games.  Its perfect record should not come as a surprise to anyone.  Further, it should not be used as evidence that the Pac 10 is all of a sudden a great conference.  Now, here’s a table with the predicted record and actual record compared. 

The SEC favored in only three of its games won six of them, not to mention the BCS Title game.  Thanks to an underdog uprising by Vandy, LSU, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, the SEC fared quite well even with Alabama and Spurrier shitting their beds. 

The MAC was terrible, losing all its games despite being favored in more than half.  The Big 10 did just as badly as predicted.  Conference USA and Mountain West did better than Vegas thought they’d do. 

Thanks to the now powerful Big 12 North, the Big 12 only finished one game behind its predicted record.  The Big 12 South’s performance prompted the “experts” to shout ”overrated” over the air waves.  Judging solely from the bowl games, they have a point.  All season long the Big 12 declared that this year it was better than the rest, so when three of the four best teams lose to a Pac 10 and two SEC teams, the claws are going to come out. 

Alas, the Big 12 looks even worse taking into account the Against the Spread records.*

*The lines used are the same as the lines in the AT post linked above.  I realize the line fluctuates, but screw that.  I use the opening lines here.

Because Mizzou and Texas struggled against teams they were supposed to clobber, the conference ATS record is a mere 2-5.  Even more evidence for the experts to use against our conference.  Those two additional ATS losses were to Big 10 teams, saving that conference a little face and giving it a 3-4 record (better than the Big 12).  Thanks, again, by the way, to the Big 12 North (KU and NU) for those two ATS wins. 

The Pac 10′s actual record of 5-0 drops a bit to 4-0-1 ATS due to Oregon State’s thrilling 3-0 push in El Paso against Pitt. 

And I now notice I completely forgot the Independents, so in case you’re just dying to know - 0-2 predicted record, 1-1 actual record, 1-1 ATS. 

I’m hesitant to read too much into the bowl games in assessing the conferences.  Still, I must admit that I’m disappointed in the Big 12′s performance.  From Mizzou’s regression, to UT’s struggle, to OSU and TT losing by double digits, to OU scoring just 14 points (I still can’t get over that one), the conference jumped on the big stage and promptly fell off.  After being the prime-time ABC game six weeks in a row, after being the Gameday darling, it’s just too bad we couldn’t close it out. 

And, of course, now the SEC gets to crow more.  And Tebow, of course, announced he’s coming back.  Hooray.