As everyone knows by now, Maclin will announce on Friday whether he’s coming back for his junior year or bolting to the NFL.  I don’t imagine one calls a press conference to announce he’s coming back, but you never know. 

 I’ve polled the AT braintrust, such as it is, and we collectively deem it a 93% chance Jeremy Maclin will make himself eligible for the draft.  Gathered from the ATers, reasons he will leave the Tigers:

• has already dealt with a very serious injury and understands the frailty of life all too well;
• there is no way a kid who would have grown up in poverty but for a nice family taking him in will pass up the guaranteed millions to go back to a team whose realistic goal is simply winning the North Division;
• new NFL CBA will likely screw rookies;
• has nothing left to prove;
• what happens if our QB situation isn’t very good and/or we decide to run and play ball control more, and Maclin goes for 55 and 740 next year?  He could fall. 
• he slows down - there are plenty of guys that are super fast when young and become just fast as they get older.
• he still has fresh in his mind the panic he felt when he hit the turf at the EJ dome thinking he might have torn something in his ankle;
• he remembers the feeling of tearing his ACL as a freshman;
• he remembers the countless times this season he picked himself up slowly off the turf as he inventoried his parts and ensured the damage wasn’t permanent;
• he knows a single injury could be the difference between first round money this year and third or fourth round money next year;
• he is coming off the high of scoring three times in the bowl game and single handedly putting his team on his back with the second quarter punt return against Northwestern;
• he is concerned that our once “high octane” offense will be running on low grade dirty fuel next year;
• his coaches know it is the right thing for him to do and urge him in that direction.

We were able to come up with a handful of reasons he might stay:

• likes being BMOC;
• would be The Man on the Tigers – no more sharing time with the Chases;
• smart kid who can graduate next year;
• is only a sophmore;
• could be a two-time All American and once as a wide receiver;
• adoptive family is well off and could afford a sizable insurance policy on his health;
• could afford to soundproof the walls of his mother’s home so if he ever had to stay at her place on visits she can have her friends over drinking into the wee hours of the morning while he slept.

Selfishly, I really hope he stays.  Obviously.  The risk is just too high, especially for a guy whose value is so wrapped up in his spindly legs. 

There are a few case studies with which Maclin has probably already familiarized himself. 

Mike Bush – star running back for Louisville surprised the world by returning for his senior year.  A duel threat runner and receiver, Bush tallied nearly 1400 yards his junior season.  In the first game of his senior year, 2006, Bush’s leg broke.  And bad.  In the 2007 draft he was taken in the 4th round by the Raiders where he backs up Fargas and McFadden for now. 

Damien Anderson – star running back for Northwestern who, in his junior year, finished second in the nation in rushing yards and fifth in the Heisman voting.  After the 2001 draft, early guesses had Anderson going in the first round after his senior year.  He dislocated his shoulder in a game, missed a bunch of time, went undrafted.  He signed as a free agent with the Arizona Cardinals where he backed up for awhile, and now he’s an Edmonton Eskimo. 

Cornelius Ingram.  A QB stuck behind some guy named Tim Tebow, Ingram switched to TE and, what do you know, a really good one.  At 6-4, 235, with 4.5 speed, Ingram announced he was leaving, but backtracked when the NFL advisory board gave him a third round grade.  In August 2008, his knee exploded and now he’s just hoping to get drafted.

Matt Leinart.  After starting for two seasons at USC, most thought Leinart would leave LA to become a star in the League.  He opted to return for one more year so he could get his ballroom dancing degree, a nobel pursuit if ever there was one.  Had he opted for the draft, many believe he would have been taken #1 instead of Alex Smith – whoa, the Niners were damned either way.  The next year, after another great college season, Leinart was taken 10th overall.  He probably lost a few million.  However, there’s no question he made the right choice by staying in school.  In addition to the dancing degree, he got to date Kristin from Laguna Beach.

Let’s face it, being QB1 at USC is a much better deal than playing in the NFL for a bad team.  Hell, it’s better than 99.999999% of all other vocations.

I’m not saying these guys patently made the wrong choice by returning to school.  There are benefits to being in school, like dating Kristin.  If Maclin comes back, maybe he can date Kristin too.  Still, turning down the opportunity to make that kind of money, especially considering his background, would be crazy.  Maclin is a smart kid who will probably make the choice that is best for him.

Unfortunately. 

Good luck to him either way.