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Lines We Care About (and other stuff)(Bowl Edition)

Posted by Phenomenal Smith on December 11th, 2008 under Uncategorized

I figure this is the last chance to care about lines, so I’m going to care about all of them (Scipio can make you care about the really bad ones).  And that’s a whole hell of a lot of caring - there are 34 bowl games!  Fifty-seven percent of all D1-A schools go bowling.  I’m not really complaining because I say the more football the better, but being a bowl team isn’t a big deal any more.  Before we dive into other stuff, here are the lines sorted in such a way to show that Mizzou is still, despite recent troubles, the greatest team in all the land.

FAVORITE

LINE UNDERDOG

Missouri

13.5

Northwestern

South Florida

13

Memphis

Alabama

11

Utah

Texas

11

Ohio State

Kansas

10

Minnesota

USC

10

Penn State

Central Michigan

6.5

Florida Atlantic

Rutgers

6.5

North Carolina State

California

6

Miami (Fl)

Georgia

6

Michigan State

Texas Tech

6

Ole Miss

Florida State

5.5

Wisconsin

Connecticut

4.5

Buffalo

Boston College

4

Vanderbilt

Georgia Tech

4

LSU

Arizona

3.5

BYU

Troy

3.5

Southern Mississippi

Oklahoma State

3.5

Oregon

Florida

3.5

Oklahoma

Wake Forest

3

Navy

Fresno State

3

Colorado State

Rice

3

Western Michigan

Houston

3

Air Force

Oregon State

3

Pittsburgh

Iowa

3

South Carolina

Clemson

3

Nebraska

Ball State

3

Tulsa

East Carolina

2.5

Kentucky

TCU

2

Boise State

Northern Illinois

2

Louisiana Tech

Cincinnati

2

Virginia Tech

Hawaii

1.5

Notre Dame

North Carolina

0

West Virginia

Maryland

0

Nevada

 Of the six double-digit lines, three are BCS bowls.  These are supposed to be your premier match-ups.  On the one hand it makes some sense because we’re talking about the best teams and often the best teams will be favored by ten or more.   On the other hand, the system is set up to titillate us with fantastical matchups about which we will tell our kids’ kids.  Seriously, I’m worried about what I’m going to talk to my grandkids about and the BCS is not helping.  Doesn’t seem right.  Ideally, UT would be matched up with Alabama and OSU with Utah.  This would have given us another Big 12/SEC matchup – something the world needs right now during these tough economic times – and would have given OSU a fighting chance in a BCS bowl. 

It’s also great to see that Mizzou’s exclusion from the BCS a year ago made the BCS folks re-think their system.  Last year it was all “hey, we don’t take conference title game losers!” and this year it’s all “Roll Tide, thankyouverymuch.”  Mizzou’s hardships have made the world a fairer place.  Of that I am proud.

Of the six double-digit lines, three are Big 12 teams.  This is evidence of the Big 12′s superiority over, at least, the Big 10 (the victim in all three games).  It is also evidence of bad bowl contracts. 

It’s nice to see Mizzou favored, but that’s a lot of points.  Especially against a team ranked higher.  A win will be a nice send off for all the seniors who have done so much for the program.   A loss against a clearly inferior program from a crappy conference will cement the idea that this Mizzou team is not nearly as good as last year’s and, more importantly, would dishearten this Mizzou fan.

Which conference rocks the bowl year?

CONFERENCE

BOWL TEAMS
ACC 10
SEC 8
Big 12 7
Big 10 7
Big East 6
CUSA 6
Pac 10 5
MAC 5
WAC 5
Mountain West 5
Sun Belt 2
Independent 2

 

The ACC, with its myriad of good teams and strong showing in the non-conference, dominates the bowl season with ten teams.  For a conference that has a bad rap, that’s not too shabby.  Oh wait, that’s the conference that has never won a BCS bowl.  They deserve the bad rap.  This year Va Tech will take another crack at ending the streak by taking on the Bearcats of Cincinnati.  Great – that’s a BCS game?  Almost as bad as KU and Va Tech. 

Conference USA got six teams in bowls.  That’s outrageous – more than the Pac 10.  Plaudits go to the CUSA commissioner who clearly knows how to negotiate contracts and lobby bowl officials.

So, which conference is most likely to dominate?  If the lines are to be believed, the Big 12 in a walk.  I’ve put together the average line for each conference and projected record based on the individual lines.

CONFERENCE

BOWL TEAMS AVERAGE LINE LINE RECORD
Big 12 7 -5.36 5-2
Big East 6 -3.83 4-1-1
Pac 10 5 -3.8 4-1
MAC 5 -0.8 3-2
ACC 10 -0.5 5-3-2
SEC 8 -0.13 3-5
WAC 5 -0.1 2-2-1
Sun Belt 2 1.5 1-1
CUSA 6 1.83 3-3
Independent 2 2.25 0-2
Mountain West 5 3.7 1-4
Big 10 7 7.57 1-6

More evidence that the Big 10 has been over-bowled.  An average line of 7.57 and underdogs in all but one of its games.  Wow.   The Big 12 is basically the opposite.  Under-bowled and significant favorites.  Only NU and OU are dogs, and they’re pretty close. 

The Mountain West, the conference that begs for respect at every turn, the conference that went 9-5 against BCS opponents in ’08, has an excellent opportunity to prove that it is worthy of accolades as it takes on four favorites and comes in at a 3.7 dog. 

Notre Dame, losers of their last nine bowl games, is only a 1.5 point underdog.  Notre Dame is historically over-bowled because of its fan base and TV draw, but this year it actually has a chance to win the game.  All I have to say to that is Go Rainbow Warriors!!

Thirty-four bowl games await us.  AT will have a consensus bowl pick’em entry for you all to copy and become millionaires.  You can thank us later. 

Like all bowl seasons, it will be interesting to monitor the success of each conference, especially compared to the Vegas lines.  The conferences should review the lines and results historically to determine just how over or under bowled they are and then apply their learnings to their bowl contract negotiations.  They probably won’t, though.

 Oh, and finally, how does one get on a bowl committee?  How great a job would that be?  You’d get to travel around to watch college football, get treated like royalty, free seats, free stuff, and you’d have an excuse to wear a tacky sports coat.  What could be better than that?  Where do I send my resume? 

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  1. [...] the bowls, I analyzed the lines and discussed which conferences had the best matchups to give the appearance of supremecy.  There, [...]

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