Slim, you ignorant slut. 

90% of football is mental, the other half is physical.

       –Yogi Berra

We here at Atomicteeth might be accused of stat geekery at times.  We have spent unusual amounts of time breaking down numbers and creating nearly-sentient Predicatrons to do our bidding.  You might think that we are blind to the mental side of the game.  We aren’t.

 In fact, I’ll say this:  The outcome of individual games, if the teams do not have huge gaps in talent, is often decided by which team has the mental edge.  By “mental edge,” I mean the team that is more focused on the game and comes out with more energy.  There are probably hundreds of factors that affect which team has a mental edge, but here are a few tangible things:

1. Does the game mean more to one team than the other?
2. Does one team feel disrespected by the other, or the media?
3. Is one team coming off a big victory(ies) that allowed it to achieve something?
4. Is there a very recent history of one team beating the other?
5. (Summary of 1 – 4) Is there any reason to think one team will look past the game?
6. Are the teams closer in talent than it might first appear?
7. Is the game home, away or neutral?  If neutral, will it really play neutral?  Night or day game?
8. Is there any reason to believe one team thinks winning is impossible?

 A couple examples about how these things work, first from this year.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma.  Somehow, conventional wisdom (and much of the college football media) had already decided that this was Tech’s year, but I wasn’t buying it.  The mental aspects of the game were hugely in Oklahoma’s favor.  Tech beat OU last year (albeit barely, and with Bradford out), had recently defeated Texas, and had its eyes on the National Championship, Tech (by its own standards) had arrived.  All the hype was going to Tech, and there seemed to be a good chance that Tech was buying into the “this is our year” talk.  Whereas, Stoops had two weeks to convince his charges that OU was being disrespected by the entire human race, OU was at home in a night game, and there was no way OU’s players thought they couldn’t win.  Tech waltzed into the perfect storm.  We all know the result.

Kansas v. Missouri, Arrowhead.  Missouri had already clinched the North, were big favorites to beat KU, had memories of defeating KU on the same field a year before.  In fact, Missouri was looking ahead so much that the coaching staff inexplicably decided to sit its second most talented player (Chase Coffman) until it looked like he might be needed.  I don’t know a more efficient way to tell your charges that this game is not the most important thing going on.  The two teams’ 2008 records suggested a large talent gap (in Missouri’s favor) that probably doesn’t exist.  KU obviously did not feel it had no chance in the game, especially after its near-comeback in 2007.  Missouri waltzed into the perfect storm.  We all know the result.

Now, how does all this play out on Saturday?  Hugely in Missouri’s favor, with one caveat.

Oklahoma is coming off two massive, emotional victories.  Two weeks ago, OU came out as focused as I have ever seen a college football team, especially on defense, and ate Tech alive.  Last week, OU managed to avoid a mental let down (on offense, at least) and won a shootout against OSU.  This allowed OU to win the Big 12 South, easily the toughest division in any conference in the country, and have the inside track to the National Championship game.  Many of its players will remember defeating Missouri twice last year, by relatively large margins.  Also, Missouri’s record, its recent loss to KU, and its demolition by two Big 12 South teams indicates to the Sooners that Mizzou is even worse than last year; an easy target.    Finally, Mizzou’s season can only be salvaged with a win in this game.  This is now our everything.

Last year, Stoops (a Jedi master of motivation) was able to convince his charges before the Big 12 Championship game that OU was being disrespected by Missouri and the national media, many of whom were picking Mizzou for the National Championship game.  Missouri players, on the other hand, repeatedly commented how they “gave the game away” in Norman earlier in the year.  More than Yoda’s silver tongue, it will take, to convince the 2008 Sooners that Missouri is stealing their thunder.

The teams are closer in talent than it might appear.  I could break this down for hours, but I’ll save that for another day.  Last year’s line was Mizzou +3, this year it is Mizzou +14, and I’ll say this:  The differences between Mizzou and Oklahoma  have not significantly changed from last year to this.  Like last year, OU is clearly a more talented team, top to bottom.  Like last year, Missouri has offensive playmakers that can come close to matching OU’s; Missouri has better, but still inferior, lines; and both teams have suffered from repeated bouts of broken coverages, but have good athletes in the secondary.  Realize that Missouri will very likely have more players taken in the NFL draft next April than will Oklahoma.  I think Mizzou fans are a little starry eyed about OU’s talent and the perceived gap.  I can only hope that Oklahoma players feel the same.  Remember that a very similar group of Tigers were tied with OU at the half in San Antonio, and leading OU at the end of the third in Norman last year.  There is plenty of talent on this roster to win Saturday, just as KU had plenty of talent to pull off an upset of Mizzou last Saturday.

And, finally, the huge x-factor advantage:  the game is being played in one of the loudest football stadiums ever designed, at night, in Missouri’s backyard.  If Missouri gets any sort of momentum, Arrowhead will be rocking Saturday night.

The one huge, massive wildcard:  Does Mizzou (and its scaredy-cat fans) think it can beat OU?  I don’t know the answer to that.  Hopefully Jackrabbit Slim is not indicative of the rest of Tiger Nation.

So you’ve made it this far, and you just can’t believe it.  Lies!  False hope!  This cannot happen.  A big, bad, offensive juggernaut like OU rolls into Arrowhead having systematically destroyed nearly everyone on its schedule, only to be confronted by an underperforming Big 12 north weak sister that got its ass handed to it by the monsters of the south during the regular season?  Bet the house on OU, I don’t care if they are 14 point favorites on the road against a good, experienced team!

2003, Kansas State 35, Oklahoma 7, at Arrowhead.  OU favored by…..14 points.  Going into the Big 12 championship in 2003, Oklahoma was a consensus number 1 and commonly believed to be unstoppable.  They were 12 – 0, coming off a 56 – 25 thumping of Texas Tech, and had destroyed A&M, OSU and UT by a combined 194-22(!?!).  KSU, on the other hand, was a relatively pedestrian 10 – 3, the victim of a three game swoon in late September/early October.  Who did KSU lose to?  Marshall, Texas and Oklahoma State.  KSU righted the ship against the dregs of the conference, with only one impressive victory down the stretch, a 38 – 9 victory over then-#21 Nebraska, and had trouble putting away Missouri at home the week before, winning 24 – 14.   This was not a KSU juggernaut, far from it.  It was Darren Sproles and a bunch of borderline NFL talent.  Despite that, KSU walked into Arrowhead and dominated the Sooners, largely through defensive efficiency (OU was a combined 6 – 21 on 3rd and 4th down conversions), turnovers (2 - 0 in KSU’s favor) and Sproles (over 300 yards from scrimmage).

 I remember watching the game on TV.  Nobody gave a good KSU team any chance.  By halftime, KSU was up 21 – 7, OU looked like it was just waiting for the game to be called and given to them as per the pre-game instructions, and Arrowhead resembled Manhattan during a vintage KSU romp (several of which I’ve unfortunately experienced first hand).   The set up this weekend is very similar, my only question is….

Tigers, do you believe???