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Nostradumbass Predicts the Mizzou – OU Game
Posted by JR Slim on December 3rd, 2008 under Uncategorized
“Wagons will roll and Cats will flee as the sky will burn with fire from a power never seen.” Nostradumbass 1566
A lot of predictions are being made about the Big 12 Championship game by the so-called experts, but the omniscient Nostradumbass is here to set the record straight on what you can expect this Saturday.
Please allow me to start by saying that I love the Tigers. I love Coach Pinkel and what he has done for this program. I love our players. However, I’ve gots to keep it real here and call a spade a spade – the Tigers are going to get absolutely mauled this Saturday. I hear the chatter from Tiger fans trying to pump each other up after a deflating loss to Kansas and give each other a reason to believe, but this is all a bunch of noise that you should ignore while you prepare yourself for the impending ass-kicking of epic proportions. Let me break it down for you:
- Oklahoma is absolutely unstoppable on offense and has an NFL-caliber line that Mizzou simply cannot match. Mizzou’s pass rush will be non-existent.
- Mizzou had trouble stopping KU’s average receivers so what do you think Manuel Johnson and Juaquin Iglesias are going to do to them? Answer – it will often appear as though no one is covering the open OU receivers because, well, no one will be covering the open OU receivers.
- KU’s Jake Sharp sliced through Mizzou’s D-line like a knife through hot butter. I am willing to bet that Demarco Murray averages over 8 yards a carry against the Tigers. He will make the Tiger defense appear as though they are standing still while he runs by/over/through them.
- You want to talk about how OU’s defense has given up a lot of points? Great. Take a look at how many of those points have come late in the game after the Sooners raced to huge half-time leads. Also, do you think the Tigers can hang 60 points on OU? If not, there is no need concerning yourself with the OU defense because Mizzou will never score enough to even be in the game.
- I love the theory that OU will not be mentally ready for the game and will be looking ahead at the National Championship game. Right. Stoops already has his players pumped up about the massive amount of disrespect people around the country are showing them by saying that Texas should be playing for the title instead. OU bulletin board material = very bad things for the next OU opponent.
- Finally, Mizzou has proven in 2008 that they fold miserably under the pressure of a big game.
- Exhibit A – 42 points allowed to a mediocre Illinois team played in the national spotlight. The horrific secondary play was merely a sign of things to come.
- Exhibit B – A 28-23 loss to OSU at home on national TV wasting a chance to rise to #1 in the nation. Both the Tiger offense and defense choke at the end of the game.
- Exhibit C – Mizzou gets rocked 56-31 at Texas and players, such as Chase Coffman, lamented the fact that the Tigers weren’t mentally ready to play the freaking #1 team in the nation in front of 98,000 screaming fans. If you can’t get up for a game like that, something is seriously wrong with your team.
- Exhibit D – Despite playing their hated rival in front of a huge crowd at Arrowhead, Mizzou loses to a now 7-5 KU team while watching their offense and defense choke at the end of the game, again.
Here is the Official Nostradumbass Prediction: OU wins 66-18. Stoops doesn’t call off the dogs because he wants to solidify their position as national title contender. You see a lot of Blaine Gabbert because Chase Daniel is knocked out of the game in the first half after suffering a series of bone jarring hits. The game is out of hand at half-time and the AT staff breaks pre-game promises to stay moderately sober and drowns their misery in a sea of alcohol. Attention starts to turn to the more exciting Mizzou basketball team as we look forward to the 2009 football season and file 2008 away with the other disappointing years Tiger fans have suffered through. It hurts, but this is reality people. Accept it. An invincible force is on its way to KC and they are some mushroom cloud laying mother fuckers, mother fucker. This game is going to be painful.
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Scipio Tex said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
So…you think there’s a chance!
Phenomenal Smith said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:52 pm
No offense, but this really is a dumb post.
First, your theory of folding in big games? That’s just revisionist bullshit. We all thought the MU/Illinois game was big, but then we won, so it wasn’t big. We all thought the NU game was big, but since we killed them, it wasn’t big. Nobody thought the OSU game was big until we lost it. There’s no evidence that the Tigers fold in big games – there’s evidence that we aren’t a great football team. That’s different.
Besides, OU under Stoops is famous for coming out flat in “big games.”
Plus, your blanket statement that OU gives up points only after having huge halftime leads is not supported by the evidence. Against OSU, the halftime lead was 8. Against Tech, they gave up 14 points in the second half. Against A&M and NU, 14 points in each half. Against KSU, 28 points in the first half, seven in the second. Against KU it was 17 points in the first half, 14 in the second.
I don’t mind your pessimism, but I do mind you spouting out a bunch of Tigerboard-quality drivel. You’re better than that.
Gene Claude said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I think his point is that this is ridiculous. I think.
JR Slim said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
1. Illinois was a big game and the defense performed miserably save a heroic performance from Moore. Nebraska was also big and is the exception to the rule this season. Everyone thought the OSU game was big because we knew that we would likely be #1 if we could post a victory. It was a huge game. The lack of being mentally ready to play against Texas and KU should tell you that we have problems getting up for “big” games.
2. Some say OU falls on its face in big games under Stoop. Yes, there is Boise State and West Virginia to support that point. Contrast that with five league championships and one national championship in the last 10 years. He is 31-12 against ranked opponents and 15-5 against top 10 opponents at OU. I’d say that overall, they do just fine in big games.
3. I did not say that they ONLY gave up points after having huge leads at half. The point I was trying to make is that a lot of points have been surrendered after the 1st teamers were out of the game, which is a fact. Against TT, they gave up 14 points in the second half after cruising to a 42-7 lead at half. Against A&M, they gave up 14 points in the second half after rolling to a 38-14 halftime lead. OU had a 49-14 lead at half to NU before giving up 14 more. They carried a 33-0 lead against UW before giving up 14 in the 2nd half. They were ahead 35-3 before giving up a late TD to TCU.
4. I am not better than Tigerboard-quality drivel.
5. I am not saying that we have a chance.
MoJo said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:27 pm
It’s your mother-in-law that requires/demands the pre-game sobriety promise, isn’t it? Dude.
Phenomenal Smith said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Fair enough, but I thought Okie State was the equivalent of playing Nerinx Hall. Most everyone thought we’d roll. Nearly everyone thought we’d roll KU too – seriously, we just aren’t a great team. Non-great teams lose games. If Reesing had missed Meier on that 4th and 7, we wouldn’t even be talking about this, yet nothing significant would be different.
OU still gave up a lot of points with their first team defense in. They gave up roughly 240 points in conference games – that is a subpar year by OU standards. It’s 50% worse than a year ago. OU’s defense isn’t nearly as good as last year’s. That’s worth pointing out.
OU has lost its last four BCS bowls. I know, I’d kill to even be invited, but those are recent big games it hasn’t gotten up for. And in a big way. In two of those games they got killed and in one they lost to a WAC team. That’s inexcusable not-getting-your-head-right stuff.
JR Slim said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I must agree with everything you say in your most recent post.
Why aren’t we a great team? That question should be subject to serious examination after the Big 12 Championship game. We need to get to the bottom of this mystery.
Atomic Teeth » Blog Archive » Why Missouri Will Win Saturday said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
[...] Slim, you ignorant slut. [...]
Gene Claude said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:04 pm
I don’t know if OU is a great team. The very definition of great team is circular. How do we know a team is great? It won almost all of its games! How did it win its games? It was great! We can’t define greatness as winning your games, and explain winning of games by greatness.
If Chase leads us on the comeback drive against OSU (or we score a TD on the first drive and end up winning by 13) and Reesing overthrows Meier, are we a great team? So those two things are the difference between a great team and a good team?
Plenty of great teams have lost games, shit happens. I’d rather look at each game as a range of possible outcomes and think about probabilities associated with each. I think there is a 30 – 40% chance we win Saturday, or a 25 – 30% chance we would win on a neutral field.
Phenomenal Smith said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Teams come in tiers – Elite, Great, Very Good, Good, Fair, Bad, Awful. We are Very Good. That’s what we were last year too. KU is Good, but not far from Very Good (last year they were merely Good, by the way). The Very Good teams beat Good teams 80% of the time; the Great teams beat Very Good teams 80% of the time, and so on.
I’ve got a chart at home that explains it all. It’s all totally objective and above reproach.
JR Slim said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
OU will soon become the highest scoring team in the modern-era of college football history. Their defense leads the nation in sacks and is number 3 in tackles for loss and is number 4 in third-down defense. They have accomplished this while playing in the best conference in the country against six teams that are currently ranked in the top 20 nationally in total offense. They look pretty damn good to me.
Gene Claude said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Wait, pretty damn good is not a category. I’m confused.
Phenomenal Smith said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Don’t blame Slim – he hasn’t seen the chart yet. Pretty Damn Good, as a category, was rejected by the College Football Objective Team Categorization Committee as being contained within the Great/Very Good grouping (nobody was sure which). Also, it’s blasphemous and some of the schools with religious ties objected.
Gene Claude said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Not to nitpick, but their defense is 3rd in sacks (about 1 more per game than Mizzou) and tied with Mizzou for 6th in tackles for loss per game, and 12th in third down conversion rate. Impressive, but not the stuff of legends.
The third down conversion thing is really interesting, at some point I want to try to figure out why we have sucked at that.
Gene Claude said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
That made me laugh out loud. I picture Baylor’s rep, with pursed lips and two thumbs way down on Pretty Damn Good.
Phenomenal Smith said:
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
One more thing – Jake Sharp sliced through the Tiger defense like a knife through hot butter? Let me tell you, I’ve sliced hot butter with a knife and I did it at much better than 2.4 yards/carry. KU did not run the ball well against the Tigers on Saturday.