The Tigers are 17 point dogs and have been written off by most of America, including the state of Missouri, once known for its bellwether status.  Luckily, the pulse of Missouri no longer reflects America.  The Tigers really can beat the Sooners.

That’s unpossible!

Well, maybe it’s unlikely, but it’s not unpossible.  In this first installment, we’ll take a look at what Chase, Chase, Mac and the rest of the offense has to do to win this game.  That’s the easy one.  Mizzou’s offense is really good.   The Sooner’s defense has warts.  Maybe not a ton of them, but a good offense doesn’t need a lot of defenive flaws to move the ball.  Just a good plan, some playmakers, and a guy to run the show.  Mizzou has that.  Still, it won’t be easy.

OU’s defense is good, in spite of what the world will tell you if OU happens to beat MU and goes against Alabama or Florida in the title game.  OU’s defense is really good by Big 12 standards.  As we’ve learned, Big 12 offenses are so far ahead of everyone else, the defenses look like a big bag of suck compared to the likes of Connecticut, Northern Illinois, and South Florida…. yes, I’m serious.  Those defenses rank in the top 20 in total defense.  Whose defense would you rather have?  OU’s, that ranks 66th, or one of those three?  I’ll take my chances with OU’s.

 Still, Mizzou can move the ball on OU.  Take a look at OU’s rate stats (and, since we need a point of reference, we’ll compare them to a really terrible defense – Mizzou’s).

We’ll discuss Mizzou’s defense more in Part 2, but as you can see, MU’s defense looks okay compared to OU’s in the key rate stats.  What must Mizzou do to exploit the OU defense?  No matter how good Mizzou’s defense plays Saturday, Mizzou is going to need to hang at least 45 on OU.  Is that possible?  Sure.

1.  Tigers have to keep the ball for a long time.  Normally, MU gives a big p’shaw to Time of Possession, but if we throw up 24 minutes of offense against OU, that’ll mean our poor defense is facing down the barrel of Sam Bradford for 36.  You can’t win like that.  How do we keep the ball?  Well, it should be possible.  OU’s weakness is its linebacking corp, which has been depleted with injuries.  This should soften up the middle for frequent short passes and Chase runs.  If we can establish that Chase is a threat to run, like in the KU game, D Wash should be able to run more and the short passes should be available.  Converting third downs is key – the Tigers do this at a rate of 56%, good for 3rd in the conference.  Saturday, they’ll have to do better.  Winning TOP is important.  Clearly the defense has a lot to do with the TOP battle, but the offense must do its part.

2.  Keep OU out of the backfield.  Chase getting sacked won’t help.  D Wash losing yards won’t help.  Not only are they unfortunate and make Mizzou fans sad, they create punts, or worse, turnovers.  We’ve all seen what Chase does when he’s on the run. 

Clearly, the Sooners will pin their ears back and try to add to their tasty stats.  Key, again, is make them believe Chase is a threat to run, short passes, and some good old fashioned screen plays.  Maybe, just maybe, if we dink and dunk enough, a big play might open up.  We’re going to need some of those. 

3.  Don’t turn over the fucking ball.  If we turn the ball over twice in the first half, our chances of winning go from 18% to .18%.  Unfortunately, our QB1 has become quite adept at the INT, throwing more than Austin Arnaud, Josh Freeman, Cody Hawkins, Joe Ganz…okay, why embarrass him?  He leads the Big 12 in interceptions.  He’s thrown double the picks he threw last conference season.  Keeping pressure off him is part of the key (and that’s 99% game plan and 1% offensive line having a good day), but Chase’s decision making must improve and the receivers must wear stickum.

Tipped passes ala T Ruck in last year’s championship game are a death knell for this team. 

4.  Maclin and Coffman.  When Mizzou has the ball, Mizzou will have arguably the two best players on the field.  These guys may not be our only advantage, but they are our best advantage.  It’s not even close.  Maclin and Coffman have to play out of their minds.  We need not just big plays from them, but a workmanlike effort where they get the ball on 40-50% of plays.  When they’re involved, Chase Daniel relaxes and plays better.  We all know they are check one and check two on nearly every play, so they need to get open, they need to catch the ball, they need to make plays.  Maclin needs to leave some Sooners in the dust…

and Coffman needs to jump some OU defenders. 

Maclin and Coffman have to assert themselves as giant beaters early.  Like on the first drive.  Like on the first two plays of the first drive.  Hell, like Maclin taking the opening kickoff to the freakin’ house.  This tandem is better than the Sooners’ defenders and if they don’t show this early, the game might just get away from them.  Once they prove this, the rest of the team might just start believing and it will be on.  

So, what else does the Tiger offense have to do to give us a chance at the Fiesta Bowl? 

Tomorrow I’ll tackle the what the Tigers can do to stop the Sooners’ O.  That’ll be short and involve a lot of rosaries, Salaahs, mantras, mitzvots, and too-long underwear. 

 See Part 2 of How the Tigers Can Win here.