The Jayhawks are 6-5 this year, a damn sight worse than their 12-1 run last season.  They must really suck.  Their one loss in ‘07 came to the Tigers, and while the margin of victory was only 8 points, it felt like more and there was little question which team was superior.  The Tigers are essentially the same team they were in ‘07.  Ergo, the Tigers will destroy the Jayhawks.  Right?   

When I’m emotionally invested in anything (it’s happened three times in my life), I spend a lot of time envisioning awful scenarios preparing myself for the worst.  I’m all-in with the Tigers.  The Tigers are my sun, they’re my rain, they make my life this foolish game.  Any betrayal of this love…. well, if KU wins on Saturday, it’s going to hurt.

I am college football and this is Phenomenal’s heart!

So, can the Tigers lose to KU?  I’m afraid it’s possible.  The common perception is that KU is down this year compared to last year, and I am not so sure that’s true.  KU fans will tell you its all about the difficult schedule, and I’m sure there’s some truth to that.  I’d say the perception that this year’s team is down is because of its ultra-easy schedule in ‘07.  KU is getting its comeuppance for wrongfully leaping the Tigers for BCS privileges.  When you sell your soul (and whatever else Perkins had to offer) for an Orange Bowl, you get the Sooners, Longhorns, and Raiders in return.  Ha.

There should be a way we can slice the numbers to get an idea of whether this year’s team is as inferior to last year’s model as the records suggest.  I may not know the right way, but I’ve sliced numbers nonetheless.  Let’s compare KU’s ‘07 and ‘08 offenses.

 You’ll recognize these as the flipside stats Muschamp has deemed important, so I thought they’d work well in this context (I thought about asking Greg Davis which stats mattered for his offense, but he’s an idiot).  The second number is conference rank.  If you’re wondering where the red zone conversion number are, rest assured, there is no nefarious plot afoot to skew the figures. 

Last year’s offense wasn’t elite, even with the points scored.  In yards/play, yards/pass attempt, and 3rd down conversions, KU was in the middle of the conference, just like this year.   The drop in points scored is fairly significant, which I think can be attributed to last year’s sky-high turnover margin v. this year’s less than 0 effort. 

KU fans are probably thinking the years aren’t comparable given the UT/OU/TT portion of the ‘08 schedule.  Let’s back out the South games from each year.

To include red zone conversions I would have had to comb through drive charts, and frankly, I don’t get paid enough for that.  Also, the rankings here are where KU would have ranked in the conference with these numbers. 

KU’s offensive numbers for ‘07 and ‘08 are comparable when removing the South.  Still mostly stuck in the middle.  In ‘07, KU had an okay offensive attack and in ‘08 it’s more of the same.  Removing the three South teams has improved KU’s ‘08 numbers, but they still aren’t among the league’s elite.   Just like last year’s team.

Here are the defense numbers.

KU’s defense in ‘07 appeared to be pretty damn elite.  No question about it.  This year’s defense looks to be pretty damn low to middle class.  But what happens when you remove the South teams from each season?

Removing the South from each year creates two very comparable and effective defenses.  Playing the dredges of the South in ‘07 inflated the appearance of dominance of that defense, while playing the stars of the South in ‘08 overstates the ineptitude. 

Before I conclude that this KU is roughly the same as last year’s, there are at least two issues I have with the comparisons above (yes, I’ve turned a critical eye to my own work).  First, it sure seems that this year’s North is less competitive than last year’s, making the numbers that appear to equalize KU’s years suspect.  CU, KSU, and ISU have regressed, while only NU has improved.  Second, last year’s North numbers include the game against Mighty Viking Warrior Mizzou.  Seriously, with 3/4 of the games against CU, KSU, and ISU, it’d be hard for a good defense not to be #1 in every category. 

In short, this KU team is similar to last year’s team – more similar than the records would have you believe.   I think it’s fair to say the KU offense has taken a half step back, and  the defense maybe two.  While the ‘07 Tigers probably would have beaten the Orange Bowl Jayhawks 7 out of 10 times, the ‘08 Tigers are likely to beat this year’s version 8 out of 10. 

That’s a 20% chance at total heartbreak.  Too good a chance to permit much sleep this week….

For Part II, please click here.