Football Articles
Muschamp and Defensive Stats that Matter (and Mizzou, of course)
Posted by Phenomenal Smith on November 19th, 2008 under Football
We all know Will Muschamp has been named Prince of Texas, the heir to King Mack’s throne. And we know Texans largely agree that the move is totally awesome, that burnt orange is a primary color, and that Cub Scouts should be able to earn capital punishment merit badges. That’s what we know. But, is it really a good move?
I considered writing about the Peter Principle, which is something I never thought Texas would have to worry about. I thought about writing that there’s really no plan to coronate Muschamp, but instead this new deal gives him the prestige and money and desire to stick around Austin and coordinate defenses. I mulled over writing about the dichotomy of UT’s perceived arrogance and its willingness to go outside the UT family (let’s face it, Muschamp is outside the family – a handful of months don’t make him kin) for a head coach. Nebraska and K-State fans think it’s blasphemy to consider a coach without serious ties to the U.
Speaking of writing, HenryJames at Barking Carnival does a swell job of explaining the Muschamp play by comparing it to buying a call option. Interesting way to put it.
There is no question that UT has fallen head over heels in love with young Will. But, is this love warranted? Should a mere eleven games foster such unabashed hero worship? Maybe.
Back in September, Barking Carnival commented on “Defensive Stats that Matter,” as deemed by Muschamp (whoa, again with the HenryJames – he may need to get a TRO against me). If Muschamp is truly worthy of love and futures, then he will have improved UT’s defense a great deal, espcially when measured by the stats he considers important. Right? Well, he has made improvements, as seen in this patented Phenomenal Smith table.
|
UT in Conference Play |
2008 (with Muschamp) | 2007 (w/o Muschamp) |
Yards/Attempt |
7.1(2) | 7.3(5) |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 40.21(3) | 45.24(6) |
| Red Zone Conversion | 76.92(2) | 80.77(3) |
| Scoring Defense | 24.2(1) | 27.9(5) |
I used stats only from conference games as it normalizes the schedules. The number in parentheses is the conference rank, which helps give some context to the different years.
I’d say the improvement is pretty significant and across the board. It should be noted that Muschamp set a goal of 5 yards/attempt, which is unattainable in a real conference like the Big 12. Maybe that kind of thing flies in the SEC where Muschamp’s from, but not here. Anyway, only USC has a sub 5 y/a, so the goal’s really not realistic. UT’s 7.1 is good enough for second in Big 12 conference play, but it’s overall 6.8 y/a is 60th in the nation – perfectly average (perfectly median? can you say that?).
Muschamp also aims for holding opponents to a 30% third down conversion rate. UT’s not close to that, but has improved signifcantly from a year ago to 3rd in the conference from 6th. This goal isn’t as pie in the sky, though, as there are 9 teams holding opponents to 30% or better.
Clearly Muschamp has a made a big difference, but he has some work to do. And now he’ll have time to do it. Just for fun, I thought it’d be good to take a look at his old defense on that awful Auburn team that has only mustered a 2-5 record in conference without him. Surely that team’s defense has missed Muschamp. Well, not really.
|
Auburn in Conf. Play |
2008 (w/o Muschamp) | 2007 (with Muschamp) |
| Yards/Attempt | 5.6(2) | 5.9(2) |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 29.52(2) | 37.84(3) |
| Red Zone Conversion | 82.34(8) | 81.82(4) |
| Scoring Defense | 16.1(2) | 17.3(1) |
The Mushcampless Tigers are closer to reaching his goal of 5.0 y/a and have actually achieved the 30% 3rd down conversion target. Seems Muschamp was holding them back. Sure, Auburn has slipped a little since Will left in the red zone, but Paul Rhoads, the new guy, has done very well for himself. Maybe UT should contract him to be the Texas DC in waiting.
At the end of the day, all that matters is how Missouri’s defense stacks up in the defensive stats that matter. Very well, thank you.
|
MU in Conference Play |
2008 | 2007 |
Yards/Attempt |
6.9(1) | 6.1(2) |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 44.76(8) | 46.58(10) |
| Red Zone Conversion | 66.67(1) | 84.85(9) |
| Scoring Defense | 24.7(2) | 24.3(3) |
Most impressively, the red zone conversion of 66.67% is not only a 21% improvement over a year ago, it’s a full 13% better than the #2 team, Texas and Prince Muschamp. All the stats are pretty impressive, which again leads me to wonder why Mizzou’s defense has taken so much heat this year (ok, some of it from me early). Mizzou gave up some big plays early in non-con, but only a couple in conference. Gene Claude tried to ease Mizzou minds by saying all was well, even before the conference schedule. Still, just this week on Dave Matter’s blog someone was bemoaning the incompetency of Mizzou defense against Iowa State. If you complain about that, where do you find joy in college football…
Alas, Matt Eberflus stands little chance of becoming the heir to the Missouri football fortune. Matt Eberflus, despite his excellent showing in the Big 12, stands little chance of getting the love of Missouri fans. Even though his numbers compare favorably to those of Texas Royalty, Eberflus will never garner the adoration of fans whose standards, you’d think, should be lower than those of Texas fans. Yet, yesterday Muschamp is named future head coach and Texans swoon. Matt, buddy, sometimes life just isn’t fair.
Time will tell if this move with Muschamp works out. Realistically, he may never head coach a game for Texas. The key, of course, is making it hard for him to leave their defense, and that’s been accomplished. If he does leave, maybe Texas will give Eberflus a call.
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longhorn said:
November 19th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
you didnot account for the fact that you havent played oklahoma, texas tech and kansas(granted kansas boosted our stats) yet. that is the three of the best passing offenses.
Phenomenal Smith said:
November 20th, 2008 at 7:48 am
Fair point. I’ll revisit this matter in 17 days.
Professor Van Nostrand said:
November 20th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Interesting analysis as always PS. The very high 3rd down conversion percentage may be a big factor in the perceived weakness of the defense, especially for those that watch the team every week. Just a thought.
Phenomenal Smith said:
November 20th, 2008 at 9:33 am
The Mizzou defense, especially since conference play began, has played more of the bend-don’t-break style. If I had the time and inclination, I’d take a look at the 3rd down stats more closely. Briefly, it’s interesting that Mizzou has forced more 3rd down and 10+ yards to go situations than other conference teams (the stats on cfbstats aren’t well kept for this – if Mizzou isn’t first, it’s damn near the top). This also is noted in the TFL category where Mizzou is the conference leader. Also, oddly enough, Mizzou holds the opposing passer to the third worst rating in the conference on third downs.
Some of the issues here are clearly sample size related making the stats less than entirely meaningful. When college football quits being weak and rolls out a 162 game schedule, then we’ll have some numbers to work with.
Gene Claude said:
November 20th, 2008 at 10:41 am
This is just lovely. Thank you for saving me from having to do this.
bighornfan32 said:
November 21st, 2008 at 1:07 am
You can’t actually compare Eberflus and Muschamp can you?
Phenomenal Smith said:
November 21st, 2008 at 7:50 am
Sure, especially when looking at Muschamp’s defensive stats that matter. A big difference between the two is their fan bases – one of them appreciates the results, the other does not.
Gene Claude said:
November 21st, 2008 at 9:05 am
Crazy, isn’t it Big? Comparing BatZeusJesus to an actual human?!? I’m suprised Phenomenal hasn’t been struck by lightening (yet).
But Phenomenal, Muschamp makes millions and bleeds and jumps around on the sideline and yells at people! Nobody even knows what this Eberwookie looks like.
Phenomenal Smith said:
November 21st, 2008 at 9:17 am
True, GC. Very true. Muschamp also probably has his own PR firm that spreads the perception of his deity-ness across the land. Boom! Eberflus’ people haven’t even started a Wiki page for him.
Instead, Eberflus has got knee-jerk crazies trying to start anti-him clubs.
http://www.nicksloan.com/2008/10/i-hate-matt-eberflus-club.html
Gene Claude said:
November 21st, 2008 at 9:31 am
It is amazing what perception will do for reality, isn’t it? I would hazard that most Texas fans, recognizing the loss of several defenders to graduation, expected their defense to be as abysmal as they perceived it to be last year. Suddenly, it is much better! Well, to start the year, at least. While the casual Missouri fan expected our defense, with 10 returning starters, to be dominant. If you switched the two defenses under cover of darkness, painted Stryker Sulak and gave him a vaguely African name, 75% of fans would have no idea.
Texas fans will take this as a criticism of Muschamp. It isn’t. Whether he is responsible for the upgrade of the Texas defense or not matters none. He was at the helm when it happened, and should get the credit. The only point here is that the difference in perception of the merits of Muschamp and Eberflus is unwarranted.
Gene Claude said:
November 21st, 2008 at 9:35 am
After every game, there are numerous posts on Powermizzou and Matter’s blog saying something like:
“Our stupid cornerbacks won’t ever play up on the receiver and we just give up easy 10 yard passes.”
and
“The real weakness is our defensive line, we never get any pressure on the QB.”
What do you do? We are in the top 4 in sacks, top 2 in TFL/game. I don’t know what people expect. Vintage Reggie White, Warren Sapp and Bruce Smith every play. With Deion patroling the edge.
Atomic Teeth » Blog Archive » KU sucks! Right? Please tell me that’s right… said:
November 23rd, 2008 at 9:11 pm
[...] recognize these as the flipside stats Muschamp has deemed important, so I thought they’d work well in this context (I thought about asking Greg Davis which stats [...]
Atomic Teeth » Blog Archive » Rhoads Less Traveled, ISU Hopes said:
December 20th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
[...] Rhoads, praised on these very pages a month or so ago, has been hired to lead the Cyclones. He’s an Iowa native, which I assume the Cyclones hope [...]
Barking Carnival — Blog — Muschamp v. Steckel in Stats that Matter said:
October 21st, 2009 at 10:05 am
[...] Carnival and Atomic Teeth each wrote about it in an effort to track Boom’s progress and defend Eberflus’s seemingly awful defense, respectively. With the Horns visiting the Tigers this weekend, it’s time to reexamine how [...]