Only three weeks of games left and things are still very much up in the air for the FedEx National Championship Game.  It has really come down to a three horse race between the SEC, Big XII and USC (Penn State remains alive but requires much help…).   We are once again the only place on the web that gives you a chance to calculate your own NCG participant probabilities.

Ground rules for using Predicatron:

• Only edit gray cells.  These are the cells that are set up to receive inputs.  Lines entered must end in .0 or .5 (i.e., 3.5 or 5.0).   Positive lines represent an underdog and negative lines represent a favorite.
• PRESS F9 KEY AFTER MAKING YOUR EDITS TO HAVE THE SPREADSHEET RECALCULATE. 
• The opening page has AT’s best guess at lines in the future, and thus, AT’s guess at the National Championship of Florida v. Texas Tech.
• At the bottom of the model you can toggle between the probability projections (“Model”) and the logic underlying our calculations for every team or conference.
• If you mess something up in the model or would like to restart, simply refresh your browser
• More infromation on the theory.
• Please leave questions/criticisms in the comments section.

Big XII – Regardless of how you tweak the probabilities, Texas Tech remains the prohibitive favorite to represent the Big XII in Miami.  Their ability to control their own destiny coupled with their head-to-head tie-breaker over Texas makes them the Big XII south champs in about half the scenarios that could play out.  Texas and Oklahoma are each about 20% (give or take a couple %) to make it to the NCG with each team’s chances dependent on winning out and waiting for the BCS to crown a South champ.

SEC – Of all the teams still alive, Florida is the largest favorite to make it to the NCG at something north of 50%.  That high probability is a combination of a imminently winnable remaining regular season schedule and an expectation that Florida will be a decent favorite over Alabama in the SEC championship.  Alabama controls its own destiny, win out and they are assured of a spot in Miami, lose and they still have a chance to finish ahead of the Big XII and/or USC.

USC – Last week we received feedback from a reputable source that there is “no way Southern California has a better chance to play in the title game over Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma.”  Like any self-respecting bloggers we sharpened our pencils and came to the conclusion, “hell yes Southern California has a better chance that Alabama, Texas and Oklahoma.”  While it might not seem intuitive, the Big XII and SEC are fighting for at most 2 spots and in some of the rarer circumstances 1 spot (if you think that USC can jump a one loss champ from either conference). The sum of those five teams’ odds dwarf usc’s (Big XII – 79%; SEC – 74%; USC – 31%). But indvidually Florida and Texas Tech’s high probability of winning their conference championships diminish the chances Texas, Oklahoma or Alabama can get to Miami.