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Handicapping the National Championship Game Hopefuls

Posted by Gene Claude on October 28th, 2008 under Football

At this time of year, for some reason, college fans become captivated by where Their Team stands in the BCS rankings.  That would be quite useful, if the National Championship Game was played tomorrow.  This reminds me of the myopic poker player who insists his aces are ahead of the straight flush draw after the flop.  Um, OK.  Please gamble with me often.

Instead of focusing on current standings, I’m taking a shot at looking at the contenders’ remaining schedules and making some educated guesses about how each might end up in the NCG, and then throwing up some numbers to go along with those guesses.  First, the odds, expressed as percentage chance of making the NCG, and then explanations:

  1. Penn State:  55%
  2. Texas:  50%
  3. Bama: 30%
  4. Florida: 20%
  5. Georgia: 20%
  6. USC: 10%
  7. Texas Tech: 5%
  8. Oklahoma: 3%
  9. Oklahoma State: 2%
  10. Florida State: 1%
  11. Field: 4%

First, a couple things. The percentages must add up to 200%…I’m just looking at NC game participants, and I believe there will be two this year.  Second, while Big 10 and Big 12 teams have the best individual shots at the NCG, the SEC is the conference with the best chance of having a representative.  Makes sense to me as both the SEC East and SEC West still have skin in the game.  Big 12 North…not so much.  And the Big 10′s chances now rest solely on Paterno’s shoulders.

Notwithstanding its No. 3 BCS ranking, Penn State is in the catbird seat right now.  With no Big 10 championship game, PSU only has to beat Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State (at home), and see a UT or Bama loss, to be in the NCG. 

Bama’s lower percentage is a reflection of a more difficult remaining schedule than UT’s.  UT’s biggest remaining hurdles are at TT this weekend, at KU and at Kansas City, likely against MU, in December.   Bama still has to play at LSU, against Auburn and most importantly, either Florida or Georgia in the SEC title.  Also, Bama hasn’t exactly been winning in convincing fashion lately, a combined 7 points over Ole Miss and Kentucky at home, although the win at Tennessee was mildly impressive.  I put the chances of Bama going undefeated the remainder of the season at less than 40%.  I put the chances of UT going undefeated for the remainder of the season at around 50%.  So, that leaves something less than a 20% chance that the title game is UT v. Bama

I actually have Florida and Georgia nearly as high as Bama as I think either has a good shot (over 50%) at winning the SEC title game over Bama, and I believe a one loss SEC champion will get first dibs at the NCG if Texas or Penn State stumbles.  I think that Florida’s and Georgia’s remaining schedules are comparable and while Florida has to travel to Georgia, I think that Florida has been playing incredibly well lately.   I have a hard time seeing the voters allowing a 1 loss USC in the championship game if Florida or Georgia wins the SEC championship game.  And the way things have worked out, it looks likely that the winner of the UGA/UF game will end the regular season with one loss.

It gets messy after this.  USC, Texas Tech, OSU and OU still have outside shots, but each (except Tech) need help.  Everyone loves to talk about teams that control their own destiny.  Well, France controlled its own destiny in World War II, also.  That worked out.  All TT has to do is beat UT, OU and OSU and, likely, Missouri.  Um, I don’t think so.  Tech would be in a much better position if someone else controlled their destiny.  Which brings me to how the remaining teams make the NC game:

While USC is currently sitting comfortably in 5th in the BCS rankings, I believe that it will not make the NC game before a 1 loss SEC champion, and may not over a one loss Big 12 champion if that is Texas or Oklahoma.  Whether USC vaults a one loss OU or UT is hard to say, depends on who voters want to see in the championship, and how big of a strength of schedule bump OU or UT get in the computers.  I think for USC to make the NC game, it needs two of the following three things to happen:  (1) Penn State loss; (2) a 2 loss Big 12 Champion; and (3) a 2 loss SEC Champion.  USC is Mizzou’s biggest fan….

OU’s only realistic chance to get to the championship game is for the Big 12 south to end in a 3 or 4 way tie, which means Tech has to beat UT this weekend.  I won’t bore you with the arcane details of the Big 12 divisional tiebreaker, but in the event of a 3 or 4 team Reservoir Dogs-style shoot out, the team with the best BCS ranking goes to the Big 12 title and, in the above scenario, that would almost certainly be OU.  Ditto for OSU.   However, OSU is less likely to stay above a one loss USC team in the final BCS rankings.

Florida State or field:  2007 style multiple implosions. 

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27 Responses

  1. Phenomenal Smith said:

    October 28th, 2008 at 8:36 am

    Great work. One thing: The UF/UGA game is in Jacksonville – does that bump UF to 21% and knock UGA down to 19%?

    Florida State? Whoa. I haven’t thought about them in months.

  2. Gene Claude said:

    October 28th, 2008 at 8:50 am

    Crap, I hadn’t thought about that. I still have a hard time distinguishing between UF and UGA. My gut is that UF has played better than UGA in recent weeks, but I really have no idea what happens there. I would probably bump UF up and UGA down a couple percent.

    Yeah, Florida State only has 1 loss. They still play Florida, though. Still, if they run they run the table, they will be part of the discussion. Not seriously, unless all hell breaks loose.

  3. Soldier of Orange said:

    October 28th, 2008 at 1:14 pm

    I doubt that a 1 loss Oklahoma team would be rated higher in the BCS standings than a 1 loss Texas team in the event of a 3 or 4 way tie in the South. The strength of schedule would be close, and I don’t think the voters would place Oklahoma ahead of a team which beat them on the field of play.

  4. Gene Claude said:

    October 28th, 2008 at 1:25 pm

    Well, in the case of a three or four way tie, some team must be rated above a team that beat them. Because OU’s loss was the farthest in the past, and OU would be the next highest rated team, and would have the best loss, I believe you are wrong.

  5. horn in exile said:

    October 29th, 2008 at 7:39 am

    No possibility of 4way tie in south. But a 3way could happen with Texas and any two of the others.

  6. Roberto Frankfurter said:

    October 29th, 2008 at 8:08 am

    I wouldn’t say that there’s NO possibility. I admit that it is remote, at best, but OU, OSU, UT and TT could all finish 6-2, right?

  7. horn in exile said:

    October 29th, 2008 at 9:27 am

    Yes but it would require an upset such as Kansas over Texas and no 2loss team will make BCS this year.

  8. Phenomenal Smith said:

    October 29th, 2008 at 11:10 am

    CFN also has Texas and Penn State as the most likely two in the NC game, believing each will win out. They also think UF will win out. And Oklahoma. And USC.

    http://cfn.scout.com/2/805130.html

  9. Roberto Frankfurter said:

    October 29th, 2008 at 11:32 am

    You’re absolutely right, no two loss B12 team makes the BCSNCG.

    I know Horns fans wouldn’t, but I would be very sad to see UT play PSU. I’d much rather watch UT play FL, UGA, Bama or even USC.

  10. LonghornGuest said:

    October 29th, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    “I know Horns fans wouldn’t, but I would be very sad to see UT play PSU. I’d much rather watch UT play FL, UGA, Bama or even USC.”

    I actually think that Texas v. Florida would be an amazing match-up. The thought occurred that, if it should happen, that Texas would again be playing a team with essentially a home field advantage in the NC game. Of all the luck… ;-)

    Hey, if we lose this weekend (pleasenopleasenopleaseno), what are the chances of UT still making a BCS game if they win out the rest of the way? In that case, you might actually see one of those match-ups, just not in the NC.

  11. Roberto Frankfurter said:

    October 29th, 2008 at 12:47 pm

    I didn’t go overboard, but you will see in this week’s AT Blogger picks that I think UT will handle TT in Lubbock and I’m willing to give six points.

    UT v. FL would be an exciting BCSNCG. The Rose Bowl didn’t help USC and I don’t think Miami would help FL unless Colt and the boys spend too much time on South Beach before the game.

  12. Bob in Houston said:

    October 30th, 2008 at 8:57 am

    UF/UGa is always in Jacksonville (except for two years in the mid-’90s when they were building a new stadium there).

    “All TT has to do is beat UT, OU and OSU and, likely, Missouri. Um, I don’t think so.”

    I don’t think so either. But it is interesting to look back and see that Texas is finishing this run, with a chance for the sweep. I don’t think anybody, back before OU, gave Texas much of a chance of accomplishing it. I know I didn’t.

  13. Gene Claude said:

    October 30th, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    Bob, agreed, I didn’t either. But I would have given them a much greater chance than TT of doing it. I love Leach, but over the years, it has been proven that teams can scheme Tech and shut them down periodically, and between Eberflus, Muschamp and Venables (not to mention Beckman, I have a very strong conviction that TT will be shut down. Also, going into the murderer’s row stretch, UT had played fantastically good football, while Tech has had some hiccups (um, Nebraska at home? Really?).

    Of course, Tech could surprise me, and there is something intrinsically satisfying about controlling your own destiny.

  14. Gene Claude said:

    November 3rd, 2008 at 7:50 am

    Uh, that changed things.

    Will be interesting to see if OU can move ahead of UT by winning out. That would be victories over TT, OSU and MU or KU. And if either UT or OU can finish ahead of Florida if TT loses and Florida wins out.

  15. Tim said:

    November 5th, 2008 at 11:32 am

    I think you idiots need to update your odds on Texas Tech making it to the National Championship.

    I would have to say Now that Alabama has the best chance, then Penn State, then Texas Tech. Texas Tech does have the toughest road to the NC, where Penn has the easiest.

  16. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 5th, 2008 at 11:34 am

    Tim, non-idiots know how to read the date on a post.

  17. Gene Claude said:

    November 5th, 2008 at 12:13 pm

    OK, Tim. I’ll give you Alabama and Tech and I get Penn State, Florida and Texas. Whomever has at least one NC game participant wins $500 from the other, in the case of each having 1, we push. In the case either of us have both participants, we make it $1000.

  18. Tim said:

    November 5th, 2008 at 6:38 pm

    Gene, give me the field also and I’ll think about it.

    Phenomenal, I realize what date the “prediction” was written. Doesn’t change the fact that it takes an idiot to only give an undefeated Texas Tech team a 5% chance. With Texas Tech’s toughest games at home in Lubbock.

  19. Gene Claude said:

    November 5th, 2008 at 7:25 pm

    So, you won’t take the numbers 1 and 3 vs. 2, 4 and 5? Or you don’t really mean what you say? I’ll drop Texas and take your number 2 and 4. Has to be a great deal for you, right?

    I’d give Texas Tech less than a 20% chance now. I understand that reasonable minds can differ as to the chances of Tech beating UT, OSU, OU and Mizzou. Even if Tech had a 70% chance of winning each of those games, its chances of going 4 – 0 would be under 25%. It is called statistics. I had hoped that the “Tech” meant something.

  20. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 5th, 2008 at 8:11 pm

    Tim, I admire your optimism, no matter how misplaced.

  21. Tim said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 8:23 am

    Gene I just don’t feel it’s a fair bet that you get three teams and I only two. If you gave me the field also I’ll be all over it. At the very minimum give me USC or OU.

  22. Gene Claude said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 8:59 am

    Tim, you said “Now that Alabama has the best chance, then Penn State, then Texas Tech.” I’m giving you your first and third choice. I’m taking your second choice, and presumably your fourth choice. I get 2 teams, you get 2 teams. Nobody gets the field.

    If you don’t actually think that Bama and Tech are the 1 and 3 seeds, you are right, the bet sucks. My proposal was meant to see if you really thought that Bama and Tech have 2 of the 3 highest chances of making the NC game.

  23. Tim said:

    November 10th, 2008 at 10:40 am

    Now what’s your bet Gene?

    That $500 bucks I put on Texas Tech to win the National Championship in August at 60:1 is looking very good right now.

  24. Gene Claude said:

    November 10th, 2008 at 11:33 am

    At 60:1 it looks awesome, agreed. See, that’s the magic of making a bet before events change the odds. Vegas would not offer you 60:1 now. Should have made the bet with me a week ago.

    I’ll propose something new here in a day or so. Congrats to Tech, I love Mike Leach.

  25. Tim said:

    December 8th, 2008 at 10:45 am

    Well now my $500 bucks is gone, but we would have pushed on our original bet. As I wanted the field, or USC/OU where you would have had Florida.

    As much as I would love to see the Big 12 sweep the Bowl Games, I will not be able to Cheer for OU. I hate how they pushed so hard to hit 60 against ya’ll.

  26. Gene Claude said:

    December 8th, 2008 at 5:17 pm

    Well, your original statement (after calling us idiots for not having Tech as the most likely NC game participant) was:

    I would have to say Now that Alabama has the best chance, then Penn State, then Texas Tech. Texas Tech does have the toughest road to the NC, where Penn has the easiest.

    The point of the bet was that you got your #1 and #3 seed and I could choose 2 others. I chose UT and UF. You wanted to change the bet after backing down from your original statement, which is fine. The real point was that although you said you thought Tech had the best shot at making it, I doubted you really believed that.

    I’ll cheer for OU, but not happily. I don’t care about the 60 points, we should have stopped them. I just don’t want to see Florida win again.

  27. Tim said:

    December 9th, 2008 at 10:35 am

    Not that it matters any more, but I stated that Alabama and Penn State both had easier roads to the NC game than Texas Tech. You said I could have #1 and #3 and you will take Penn State, Florida, and Texas. I didn’t “go back” on my bet at all, I just stated that’s it’s not a fair bet that I only get two teams and you get three.

    I came back with, “give me the field, or Oklahoma/USC, then you backed off. I was never willing to put money on 2 teams vs. 3 teams. I would have been all over Alabama, Texas Tech, and USC/OU vs. Penn State, Florida, and Texas.

    I never said that I thought Texas Tech had the “best shot” at making it. As Tech fans we knew our toughest game of the year was at OU, as the season progressed we soon realized that if we do indeed lose at OU we will get completely screwed. It didn’t help our argument to lose by 44, but it wouldn’t have mattered. Texas Tech could have lost in triple over-time, with OU hitting a 59 yard miracle field goal and “they” would have still voted UT and OU ahead of us.

    Under the current system Non-”Big Name” schools don’t have a prayer to win a BCS tiebreaker in a popularity contest.

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