This is the last week of the unofficial BCS results. Next weekend will mark the first release of the official standings. We are still one computer poll short of a full load, but that shouldn’t affect these unofficial standings much, if any.

No surprise, Texas and Alabama are first and second in this week’s standings. Penn State has crept up to the third spot and now waits for the inevitable slip up by these top two teams who each face daunting schedules and a conference championship game. How quickly things change, last week I wrote that Penn State was probably hurt by their lack of a conference championship game.

Of all the movements this week, none were bigger than the offsetting moves that Missouri and Oklahoma State made. Missouri fell ten spots from 3rd to 13th. Oklahoma State made a meteoric rise from 17th to 6th, buoyed by its 3rd place ranking in the computer polls (at this stage in the season most undefeated teams have a significant advantage over very good one loss teams in the computer rankings).

So what do these rankings mean at this point in the season? Well, not much if college football continues to have the parity we have seen over the past two seasons? Here is my take on what each team needs to do to earn a spot in the National Championship game:

• Texas - Run the table and Texas is in. That said, Texas’ remaining schedule is brutal.  One loss is not out of the question. With the head-to-head tie-breaker over Oklahoma, Texas can lose a game and still win the Big 12 South (depending on what OSU does).  If Texas wins the Big 12 championship with one loss they will need losses by any two of: Penn State, USC and the SEC champion to set up a beauty pageant for the final berth in the NC game.

• Alabama - Run the table and Alabama is in the NC game.  Their schedule sets up much more favorably than that of Texas.  Their biggest test is the game at LSU. Lose that game and there is a decent chance Alabama finishes second in the SEC West and loses all hope of making the NC game.   If they are able to win the SEC Championship with one loss, they will be in a similar boat to Texas and need losses by any two of: Penn State, USC and the Big 12 champion to set up the aforementioned beauty pageant.

• Penn State - The Nittany Lions have a ‘runnable’ schedule.  Home games against Michigan, Indiana and Michigan State along with road games at Ohio State and Iowa.  This past weekend’s dismantling of Wisconsin should give Penn State the confidence to go into the Horseshoe and beat a very inconsistent Buckeye squad.  I believe any loss by Penn State realistically puts them out of the running because of the performance of Ohio State the past two years.  Unfortunately for JoPa, undefeated won’t be good enough if the Big 12 and SEC champs are also undefeated.

• USC - These guys are the classic example of losing early doesn’t hurt as much as losing late.  After having their heads handed to them at Oregon State on national TV, they now sit in fourth in the BCS just waiting for two of the top three teams to stub their toes. 

• Oklahoma - Oklahoma must win the Big 12 Championship to have a shot at the NC game.  That means they need to run the table and hope for Texas to lose twice (as discussed above, Texas’ schedule is brutal–two losses is possible).  But winning the Big 12 by itself won’t be enough.  They will need losses by two of: Penn State, USC and the SEC champion to get into the much anticipated beauty pageant.

• Oklahoma State - If OSU runs the table, they are in (they will easily pass an undefeated Penn State based on the strength of their schedule).  If they win the Big 12 championship with one loss they will need the same help as OU and Texas to get into the talent portion of the beauty pageant.

• Texas Tech - If Texas Tech runs the table, they are in (any undefeated Big 12 champ will be in given the strength of the Big 12 South).  If they win the Big 12 championship with one loss they will need the same help as OU, Texas or Oklahoma Stae to get into the beauty pageant.

• Florida - Must win the SEC championship without losing another game this season plus hope for losses by two of: USC, Penn State and the Big 12 Champion to get in the the beauty pageant. 

• Georgia - Must win the SEC championship without losing another game this season plus hope for losses by two of: USC, Penn State and the Big 12 Champion to get in the the beauty pageant. 

• Utah - Almost impossible. The Utes are ranked 14th in both the Harris and USA Today polls which make up two-thirds of the BCS ranking. As I mentioned with Oklahoma State, the computers love undefeated teams and the Utes are no exception with their 5th place computer average. Even if Utah were the only undefeated team in the country they would need to be ranked in the top 3 by the Harris and USA Today polls to make it into the National Championship game–that isn’t going to happen. That said, they are a lock for a BCS berth if they run the table including a season ending win over 12th ranked BYU.

• Ohio State - Scenarios exist where OSU could run the table and end up in the NC game, but I have a hard time believing any of them are likely.  First of all, running the table is easier said than done for this team.  Second, have you seen the last two National Championship games? 

• Brigham Young - Almost impossible. It would be easy to look at Utah and BYU and say that everyone from Utah looks the same, but that would be premature. These two teams couldn’t be more opposite in how they got to their BCS ranking. While Utah rode a 5th place computer ranking to its 10th place BCS ranking, the Cougars are held back by their 19th place computer average. If BYU runs the table you can expect their computer rankings to get them well into the top 10, but that won’t be enough because the human voters will never have a MWC team in the top 2 to end the season.

• Missouri - It starts this Saturday.  Beat Texas or your relegated to rooting against Kansas so you have a chance to play back-to-back games in Arrowhead.  After last week, beating Texas seems about as likely as Ron Prince turning around the Wildcats.  If the Tigers could beat Texas, run the rest of the table and somehow beat the Big 12 South champ, you can begin to have National Championship aspirations.  But those are most likely just aspirations as you will be in line behind: 

1. an undefeated or one loss SEC champion;
2. an undefeated (maybe even one loss) Penn State; and
3. a one loss USC

In other words, Tiger fans need to be rooting against everyone in front of them the rest of the season. 

My Wild Ass Prediction?

I really see this shaping up to several one loss teams vying for a single spot in the National Championship game opposite an undefeated Big 12 Champ or Penn State.  I.e., the beauty pageant and god knows how that will shake out.   My prediction:  Florida vs. USC.