We are still two weeks away from the first release of the official BCS standings, but that doesn’t stop us from taking a sneek peek at where things stand. With both of the human polls and five of the six computer polls available, we have an excellent representation of how the official standings would look if they were released today.

There has been much talk thus far about which conference is stronger, the Big 12 or the SEC. If the BCS rankings are any indication, the nod would go to the Big 12 at this point. While the SEC and Big 12 each have two of the top four teams in the USA Today poll, the Big 12 dominates the BCS with 3 of the top 4 teams. The SEC has Alabama at second in the BCS followed by LSU at sixth.

That said, things won’t stay like this for long. Oklahoma (1st) and Texas (4th) are set to square off Saturday in Dallas with the loser likely to fall significantly in the BCS standings. Missouri (3rd) faces off against Oklahoma State (17th) on Saturday in Columbia. Alabama (2nd) hosts a resurgent Ole Miss team whose 3-3 record includes a road win over Florida and losses by less than a touchdown to Wake Forest, Vanderbilt and South Carolina.

It is nearly a foregone conclusion that Mizzou, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama and LSU control their own destiny as it relates to the national championship game. Win out and these teams will be punching their tickets to Miami.

There remains an outside chance that an undefeated Penn State could pass an undefeated Big 12 or undefeated SEC champion. In my opinion this is unlikely given the strength of the Big 12 and the SEC along with the fact the conference champions of these leagues will have played a 13th game against a strong foe further improving their strength of schedule, computer rankings and credentials in the eyes of human voters. It is a bit ironic that the Big 10 champion could be harmed by not playing in a championship game.

While the situation above makes it seem simple and would virtually assure us of a Big 12 vs. SEC national championship game, it is far from being this simple. The Big 12 and/or SEC champions could easily have one loss. If that happens, an undefeated Penn State is assured of a spot in the title game. If Penn State also drops a game that brings in the possibility that an undefeated Utah or BYU could turn the BCS on its head with a berth in the championship game (I consider this remote because human pollsters are likely to step in and put a one loss SEC or Big 12 champion in front of Utah or BYU).

Here are my thoughts on what it will take each team to earn a spot in the national championship game:

• Oklahoma – Run the table. Or lose one game and win the Big 12 championship game. The latter scenario will also require a Penn State loss or a two loss SEC champion. If Oklahoma’s lone loss occurs at Kansas State, at Texas A&M or in the regular season finale at Okie State, you can more than likely write off OU’s national championship hopes. I think it is possible for Oklahoma to stay in front of a one loss SEC champion if the SEC champion’s loss is a big upset or occurs late in the season.

• Alabama – Run the table. Or win the SEC championship with one loss and hope for a Penn State loss or a two loss Big 12 champion. It is possible for Alabama to stay in front of a one loss Big 12 champion if the Big 12 champion’s loss is a big upset or occurs late in the season.

• Missouri - Run the table. Or lose at Texas and beat an undefeated Big 12 South champion in KC. The latter scenario will also require a Penn State loss or a two loss SEC champion. Any Mizzou loss other than at UT should eliminate the Tigers from national championship consideration. I believe it is unlikely a one loss Mizzou will move in front of a one loss SEC champion, thus the need for two losses from the SEC champ.

• Texas – Run the table. Lose one game and win the Big 12 championship game. The latter scenario will also require a Penn State Loss or a two loss SEC champion. If Texas is going to lose, it better get it out of the way quickly (i.e., to OU). With its strong remaining schedule, I believe it is possible for Texas to move in front of a one loss SEC champion other than Alabama or LSU.

• Penn State – Run the table. Or hope for a two loss SEC or Big 12 champion. It is unlikely a one loss Penn State will move in front of a one loss SEC or Big 12 champion.

• LSU – Run the table. Or win the SEC championship with one loss and hope for a Penn State loss or a two loss Big 12 champion.

• USC – Run the table and hope any two of the Big 12, Big 10 or SEC champs have a loss. This assumes that USC is able to move in front of a one loss Big 12, Big 10 or SEC team.

• Georgia – Run the table and hope the Big 12 or Big 10 champ has a loss.

• Utah – Run the table and hope: 1) any two of the Big 12, Big 10 or SEC champs have a loss; and 2) USC loses another game.

• Vanderbilt – Simple, run the table. Any loss is going to knock Vandy out of BCS championship consideration.

I have limited my analysis to the current top 10 BCS teams, but other teams remain in the hunt. BYU faces a situation very similar to Utah, but having a potential Heisman finalist leading the team can’t hurt them in the human polls. Texas Tech could win out and would more than likely land in the BCS title game, but any loss and they are out of consideration. Ohio State also needs to win out to have any chance, but I don’t think that will be enough given their past experience in the championship game (you have to believe the human voters are tired of seeing Ohio State demolished in the championship game).