CFN had an interesting snippet regarding the BCS and the current pecking order. They said:

“As it stands now, the national title pecking order is (for right or wrong) …
1. Unbeaten SEC champion,
2. Unbeaten Big 12 champion,
3. Unbeaten Big Ten champion,
4. One loss SEC champion,
5. Unbeaten Big East Champion,
6. One loss USC,
7. One loss Big 12 champion,
8. One-loss Big 12 champion,
9. Unbeaten Mountain West champion,
10. One loss Big Ten champion,
11. Two loss SEC champion. (Note: The ACC doesn’t have an unbeaten team and likely has no shot”

This is the first sensible flow chart I’ve seen of potential National Championship Game participants. Pretty much every article you read over the next three or four weeks will present a stupifying, mind numbing list of hypothetical outcomes to this season. IGNORE THIS CRAP. There are only two scenarios you, Mizzou fan, (or you, OU, UT, OSU, KU, or TT fan) need to concern yourself with.

(1): If my team goes undefeated, should I book tickets to Miami? KU fans, you don’t need to worry about this one.

(2): If my team has one loss, but wins the Big 12 Championship, should I do the same?

Number (1) was answered on Thursday night with USC’s loss. Now, all unbeaten Big 12 teams control their own destiny. Win out, you go to Miami. Done. Thanks, Pete and Mark.

But (1) was never a big deal, anyway. Every year, the BCS wailing and gnashing of teeth begins around week 4…what if there are three unbeaten teams??? There’s no way USC can lose!!! And almost every year the multiple unbeaten teams argument is put to bed by the end of October at the latest. This year, multiple unbeaten teams were even more of a long shot, with three to five strong Big 12 teams, 3 – 5 strong SEC teams and a Big 10 that looks to be filled with mediocrity (although Penn State is pretty salty). I was never once concerned that if Mizzou won out, we would not be in the NC game.

No, what has had me worried is (2): What happens if Mizzou (or insert your favorite Big 12 team) finishes the regular season at 11 – 1 and plays in and wins the Big 12 Championship? What would it take for Mizzou to play in the NC game in that scenario? (In case you were wondering…there is very little chance the loser of the Big 12 Championship game plays in the NC game…unless everyone has 2 losses, I’m just ignoring that possibility).

In the case of option (2), the Week 4 shenanigans could prove to be most helpful, not just for MU, but also for OU, UT or even TT or Okie State or, ack, KU. Each of those teams could also find itself in the Big 12 championship game with 1 loss.

Here’s why week 4 was so helpful. For one loss, Big 12 Champion team to definitely make the National Championship game there must be NO MORE THAN ONE of the following:

• An undefeated or one loss SEC Champion (NOTE: A one loss non-divisional winner SEC team or a one loss SEC Championship game loser does not count)

• An unbeaten Big 10 team

• A one loss USC

• A one loss Ohio State

• An unbeaten Big East Champion

I actually think that the latter three may be irrelevant, at least for UT, MU, OU and probably TT. Recall that (see Euclid’s article) computers that consider strength of schedule account for one third of the BCS formula. A one loss USC or Ohio State, or an unbeaten Big East team have a very good chance of finishing below those four Big 12 teams in the final BCS rankings due to SOS issues. And, frankly, I cannot fathom UCONN or South Florida going undefeated or playing in the NC game, so I’m throwing the whole unbeaten Big East Champion thing out the window.

That means the following teams matter for a one loss, Big 12 Champion: Florida, Georgia, Bama, Auburn, LSU, USC, Ohio State and Penn State.

In the SEC, Florida, Georgia and Auburn are all on the precipice: One more loss and they are no longer a threat. That was the beauty of this weekend. Both UGA and Florida lost, but even more importantly…they lost to teams in the SEC West. Why does that matter? Because the Big 12 wants a 2 loss SEC Champion. UF and UGA losses make it considerably more likely that the SEC East champion will have 2 losses (and then win the SEC Championship game over a 1 or 0 loss LSU or Bama), which would be fantastic. Worst case SEC championship is a matchup between a one loss East and a zero or one loss West team. Preferable is a two lost East team and a zero loss West team, allowing the East to ruin the SEC’s title game hopes. UGA still has to play at Auburn and LSU, and Florida has to play at UGA, so this scenario is very much alive (UGA loses one of those two, beats Florida and viola! UGA plays Bama in the SEC title game, exacts revenge, and whines about how they aren’t in the NC game).

Likewise, in the Big 10, Ohio State is knocking on heaven’s door. And probably the most important result of Wacky Week 4 was the ranks of unbeaten Big 10 squads being halved with Wisconsin’s loss (sorry Northwestern, you don’t count). Now only Penn State definitely matters, with Ohio State barely hanging on.

In short, your rooting orders are as follows:

• AGAINST Penn State. Most important. Illinois win would have been really nice.

• AGAINST Ohio State.

• AGAINST USC.

• When not playing each other, AGAINST UGA, Florida, LSU, Auburn and Bama.

• AGAINST Florida always.

• AGAINST UGA except UGA/Florida

• SEC West OVER SEC East

• Auburn OVER Alabama

All of this comes with the caveat of “for the time being.”

In short, though, a one loss Big 12 Champion has a remarkably good shot at being in the National Championship game as long as Penn State loses. Losses by Penn State, Ohio State and USC would virtually assure a one loss Big 12 Champion would make the championship, regardless of what the rednecks down south do to each other. That’s a pretty amazing statement for the last week of September.