I was amused last week while listening to the throng of Georgia Bulldog fans surrounding me in an Atlanta bar proclaim that the Dawgs were making a “f**king statement” while we watched the beat-down administered to Arizona State.  I simply chalked up their hyperbole to the excessive alcohol intake.  After all, the Jagearbombs I was slamming were undoubtedly to blame for my uncharacteristic assault of some poor guy who was foolish enough to wear a Nebraska hat in my vicinity.  Much to my surprise, the madness was not confined within the kingdom of rabid Georgia fans as the national experts have been repeating this mantra long after the locals sobered up.  Whatever.  Granted, the Georgia win over ASU is a hell of a lot more impressive than the ass-beating handed to UVA by USC (more on that later).  However, Arizona State is not a great team and beating them a week after UNLV did the same thing is not wowing me.  I agree with the pundits who boast that Georgia traveled a great distance and played well in the heat, but it’s not as if these guys trekked out west in a horse and carriage and regularly practice in Alaska.  They flew in luxury for a couple of hours and played in the same damn heat they have been playing in for months.  In fact, at the end of the year, Georgia’s win over Central Michigan may be considered more impressive than the whipping of Rudy’s Sun Devils.   Nonetheless, this is the kind of senseless hype that gains votes and that is the name of the game right now.  Although we could find ourselves with another two loss national champion at season’s end, I wouldn’t count on it.  It is more likely that three or more powerhouse ball teams end up with identical undefeated or one loss records and similar resumes and we find ourselves discussing the mess that is the BCS for the 457th week in a row.

Enough football has been played to forecast the likely ways that this season may play out.  Obviously, the entire conversation changed abruptly last night with the Beavers triumph over the Trojans.  An early look at the current rankings and remaining schedules for the teams in contention reveals a few early themes, to wit:

1.  THE POLLS ARE TOTALLY BOGUS THIS TIME OF YEAR

USC vaulted to the top spot by virtue of beating a Virginia team that subsequently lost to UConn 45-10.  Although handing the Buckeyes their asses 35-3 the subsequent week looked impressive on its face, Ohio State looks like an average team without Beanie so far this year.  An 0-4 Ohio took them to the limit for crying out loud!  Oregon State’s shocking win over USC confirms what everyone should have already suspected; USC is not an elite team.  All praise goes to the Beavers for eliminating the Trojans from the NC hunt.  USC’s schedule is an absolute joke for a team that easily could have rolled into the NC game with a weak resume.  The combined record of USC’s future opponents is 16-16.  16-16!  These numbers speak volumes about because they largely represent the records of their future opponents against inferior, non-conference cream puffs.  But for Oregon State’s win, USC most likely would have muddled through their crap schedule and ridden a wave of propaganda to the NC game.  Poll voters, please take note of this game and put some thought to your selections for the rest of the season.  I urge you to hearken back to the words of Public Enemy’s hit track, “Don’t Believe the Hype,” when they told us: 

Some media is the whack
You believe it’s true, it blows me through the roof
Suckers, liars get me a shovel
Some writers I know are damn devils
For them I say don’t believe the hype
Yo Chuck, they must be on a pipe, right? 

Yo voters! Get off the pipe and put a little thought to your vote instead of simply looking at past performance and the name on the front of the jersey.  While you are at it, take a close look at my Tigers and try to decide if any defense in the country can stop them. 

2.  MIZZOU NEEDS A LITTLE HELP, BUT NOT MUCH

The situation completely changed last night.  Before the Beavers’ conquest, it was quite reasonable to assume that USC would plow through the cupcakes on their schedule and appear in the NC game, which would have left one spot for the more worthy contenders to fight over.  Although USC is now out of contention, Mizzou still needs a little help, but not nearly as much.  Two of Georgia, LSU and Florida presumably have to lose for the Tigers to go to Miami since the chances of the Tigers leapfrogging them are not great in that the country as a love affair with the SEC stronger than the love that dare not speak its name.  Even if the Tigers pulled off impressive wins against Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game, the SEC survivor will likely have just as many marquee victories.  In fact, if the Tigers do not run table but win the Big 12 Championship, it is not guaranteed that two SEC teams or one SEC team and an undefeated Big Ten team like Penn State would not finish ahead of the Tigers.  Yes, anything can happen, but I think the only way a one loss Missouri makes it to the Promised Land is if they lose to Texas after Texas beats Oklahoma and then win a re-match with an undefeated Texas in the conference championship game.

3.  SEVERAL TEAMS COULD BE IN A POSITION TO CONTEND FOR THE NC

The rankings chap my ass.  At this point in the year, they are based more on the reputation of last year’s teams than they are on team performances this year.  How else to explain USC’s jump from third to the pole position after beating a middling Virginia team that was spun by the media as a dominating victory that mandated recognition.  A poll voter, Stewart Mandel of SI.com commented after the game that “There’s a bit of a growing backlash for the amount of teams that open with 1-AA cupcakes. To see a team (USC) go on the road and play a New Year’s Day bowl team from last season, and not only play them but destroy them, how could you not reward that team?”  WTF?  Hey Stewart, did you happen to see that Virginia was picked to finish 5th in their 6 team division in the 2008 ACC pre-season poll?  I found that fact in about 30 seconds of research and researching and writing about sports is not my day job.  Maybe you could put a little thought to what the hell you are doing.  There are a host of 1-AA teams that would kick the pants of the Cavaliers yet Mandel and others thought in their infinite wisdom that the UVA game was the impressive win that just had to be rewarded with the number 1 ranking in the country.  I hope they feel stupid now that Oregon State exposed USC as a very good, but not elite team.

Nonetheless, the rankings are what they are so we might as well deal with them and see how the season is likely to play out.  For this exercise, I will examine only the top 10 teams as voted on by USA Today and predict regular season records only at this point. 

1. USC – 2-1 with 9 yawners to go.  They play their most capable competition, Oregon and Arizona State, in The Coliseum.  If this team loses another game to any of the human pin cushions left on their schedule, they should immediately drop out of the top 15.  If this team had any other name on their jersey they would be out of the top 10 next week.  PREDICTION: 11-1.

2. Oklahoma – 3-0 with a nice win over Cincinnati.  If they can win the Red River Shootout and beat TCU and Texas Tech at home, the only road game that may pose trouble is their finale at Oklahoma State.  However, the Sooners look unstoppable so far and will likely appear in the Big 12 title game undefeated, where Mizzou will hopefully take them downtown to China town and push them out of the NC hunt.  PREDICTION: 12-0.

3. Georgia – 4-0 with solid victories over Central Michigan and Arizona State.   They have the toughest remaining schedule of any current top 10 team, as shown below.  This needs to be a factor in the NC conversation.  While their fantastic trio of Stafford, Green, and Moreno look exciting, the biggest question is how the hell do they navigate through this schedule without a loss?  The huge clash with Bama this week is but a mere prelude to bigger games at LSU and Auburn, not to mention a brawl with Florida in Athens.  Survive the gauntlet and Georgia will likely face a re-match with LSU or Auburn in the SEC Championship.  If this team runs the table, they deserve to be #1, but they won’t.  Hell, if they only lose 1 game and win the SEC Championship, which I think they will, they have to be in the NC game in my opinion.  PREDICTION: 11-1.

    Top Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents        

4. Florida – 3-0 with a nice victory over Miami.  LSU and Georgia at home will tell the tale for the Gators.  No one else on their schedule should pose a threat.  PREDICTION: 10-2.

5. Missouri – 4-0, but it will be hard to know how impressive this record is until we see Illinois play Penn State this weekend.  It is entirely possible that Illinois sucks and this Tiger team may be in trouble heading to Lincoln and Austin.  However, methinks not.  PREDICTION: 12-0.

6. LSU – 3-0 including a nice win at Auburn, I guess.  That is the same Auburn that scored 3 points against Mississippi State, right?  Thought so.  Croom is doomed and any team that can’t score more than 3 points against his horrific squad is questionable.  LSU has holes and the rugged SEC schedule will expose them.  PREDICTION:  9-3.

7. Texas – 3-0 against crap teams.  They have a nice collection of talent, but no playmakers. I just don’t see this team as a contender when it all shakes out.  PREDICTION: 9-3.

8. Wisconsin – 3-0 after squeaking out a win at Fresno State.  They play their fiercest competition, Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois at home so the schedule is set-up for the Badgers.  I think one of those three and either Michigan State or Minnesota will beat them to knock them out of consideration.  PREDICTION:  10-2.

9. Texas Tech – 4-0 with the most quotable coach in all the land.  Mike Leach’s Red Raiders will take most of the Big 12 South to Mike’s Pirate School before Oklahoma dismantles them in Norman.  Pity.  PREDICTION: 10-2.

10. Alabama – 3-0 with a beat down of Clemson.  You may hate Saban, but he is the real deal.  I hope the rest of the SEC has lots of lubrication on hand because Nick is about to give it to you hard for years to come.  However, this year’s young team will take a couple of hard knocks along the way.  PREDICTION:  9-3.

4.  THE MOST LIKELY MATCH-UP YOU WILL SEE IN NC GAME IS . . .

While most prognosticators have been projecting a USC v. Georgia, Florida, or Oklahoma match-up, we now know that the race is wide-open and USC is out of the conversation.  It would not surprise me if Penn State replaces USC in the discussion if they beat Illinois this weekend and keep rolling along.  Mizzou is getting some love, but I think most experts look at them as a notch below the SEC juggernauts and Oklahoma.  Regardless, I think that Penn State will lose a game along the way and Georgia will be the last man standing in the SEC.  If Mizzou takes care of business, I think we will see a Bulldog – Tigers game that could be one for the ages.  Georgia and Missouri have the stars, overall talent, and coaching to make it to Miami.  Georgia has the tougher schedule while Missouri has to finally beat Oklahoma.  A Tigers – Bulldogs match-up would be wildly entertaining and once and for all settle the question of whether Chase Coffman or Knowshon Moreno is the better hurdler.  PREDICTION:  Georgia v. Missouri.

5.  WHAT THE POLL SHOULD BE

As you may have figured out by now, I believe that many of the current pollsters are lazy bastards who should have their votes taken away so that they may no longer use them for evil purposes to deny deserving teams their shot at glory.  Since I don’t like people who merely complain without also offering solutions, here is my poll based on perceived talent and actual performance in 2008, not on prior seasons’ greatness or what name is on their uniforms.  It is really too early to put a meaningful poll together, but my re-ranking of the current top 10 is as follows below (cumulative record of opponents played is in parenthesis): 

1. Georgia (8-8)   Best victories of anyone in the top 10 with huge playmakers.  
2. Oklahoma (3-7) This team looks like a deadly machine.
3. Florida (4-5) Victories over Miami and at Tennessee look good.
4. Alabama (7-7) The Clemson massacre is worth a lot right now.
5. Missouri (6-8) Tigers may drop if Illini and Nevada don’t have strong seasons.
6. LSU (4-6) Jury is still out.
7. Texas (3-8) Just waiting for you guys to play someone with a heartbeat.
8. USC (5-5) UVA is not good.  Ohio State is only decent.  Oregon State beat that ass.
9. Wisconsin (7-4) Showdown in week 6 with Ohio State will be intriguing.
10. Texas Tech (5-9) Not looking like a Big 12 South champ just yet.

Although it is very difficult to evaluate teams based on early season games, one indicator of how a team is playing is how their opponents are playing.  The chart below includes the records for each team in the top 10 and the records for each team they have played and will played so you can get a sense of how the puzzle is starting to fit together.  I invite you to examine the spreadsheet below and develop your own top 10.  If you do nothing more than that, you will have already surpassed the amount of work Stewart Mandel has done to consider his votes.